With new fights happening every week, it’s pretty tough to keep up with the favorites, underdogs – and, most importantly, the value bets.
But with our expert UFC picks, you can always stay ahead of the curve. So, what’s up for this week? One very exciting card coming up is UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot.
If you haven’t yet, clear your schedule and get in on the action at sports betting sites like Bovada. But first – read our UFC predictions and get those value bets in.
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Summary of Our Top UFC Predictions
A quick breakdown of our top UFC predictions, which are explained in more detail in the article, for this upcoming UFC Fight Night card.
Bet |
Odds |
Manon Fiorot wins 4,5 or by decision |
+215 (Bovada) |
Chris Weidman wins inside the distance |
+600 (Bovada) |
Bill Algeo in Round 3 |
+1200 (Bovada) |
Vicente Luque in Round 1 by Submission |
+1200 (BetOnline) |
Rhys McKee in Round 1 |
+400 (BetOnline) |
Manon Fiorot to win by decision |
+275 (Bovada) |
Vicente Luque to win inside the distance |
+150 (Bovada) |
Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva – Fight does not go the distance |
-260 (BetOnline) |
Nursulton Ruziboev moneyline |
-225 (BetOnline) |
Rhys McKee wins inside the distance |
+175 (MyBookie) |
How We Picked These UFC Bets
- Manon Fiorot wins 4,5 or by decision – While Manon Fiorot by decision might be the juicier play, this bet gives us a safety net. Opponent Erin Blanchfield has never been finished nor fought in a five round fight. Yet, with Fiorot having won six fights by knockout, if a finish were to present itself, we believe it would likely come in the championship rounds.
- Chris Weidman wins inside the distance – A live underdog, Chris Weidman has an excellent chance to cash this bet. Winning five of the last seven inside the distance, Weidman has proven to be a finisher. Against Bruno Silva, who has lost seven of his ten losses by submission, we see an opening for Weidman to score the upset and finish.
- Bill Algeo in Round 3 – Of Bill Algeo’s eleven stoppage victories, only two have come in round one. Facing Kyle Nelson, who has been stopped three times and two of which have been in round 3, this is a bet worth sprinkling something on.
- Vicente Luque in Round 1 by Submission – In Vicente Luque’s last three wins, two have come by first round submission. Although opponent Joaquin Buckley has yet to lose by submission, he also yet to face a grappler with the credentials Luque holds.
- Rhys McKee in Round 1 – Rhys McKee has won all thirteen victories by stoppage. Of those thirteen stoppage wins, eight have come in round one. Opponent Chidi Njokuani has been stopped in eight of his ten losses. Of those eight stoppage defeats, six have come in round one. It seems to us, round one appears to be a common thread in this equation.
Best UFC Picks Today
Here are some of our UFC predictions and picks for UFC betting:
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
The main event comes in the Women’s Flyweight division, as the second-ranked Erin Blanchfield takes on the third-ranked Manon Fiorot.
A winner of nine consecutive, six of which come in the UFC, Blanchfield has become a contender in less than three years with the promotion. On the cusp of earning a title shot, with a victory over Fiorot, Blanchfield will cement herself as the number one contender.
A talented fighter, Blanchfield came into the UFC known for her exceptional grappling and ground skills. Improving each fight, Blanchfield has evolved into a formidable striker. Backed by excellent cardio, Blanchfield looks to break fighters with a hard pace.
Meanwhile, coming off a victory over former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, Fiorot has positioned herself squarely in the title hunt. With eleven consecutive wins, six of which have come in the UFC, Fiorot is undeniably a victory away from fighting for UFC gold.
An excellent striker, with a background in Karate, Kickboxing and Muay-Thai, Fiorot has handily outlanded the majority of her opponents. Physically strong and with some wrestling chops, Fiorot has landed a takedown in five of her six UFC fights. Known to have solid cardio, Fiorot is prepared to go the distance.
In what should be an entertaining main event, we are backing Fiorot.
On paper. Blanchfield has several advantages over Fiorot. On the feet, she is the more precise striker, landing at a 13% higher accuracy. With 1.5 more takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, Blanchfield incorporates wrestling into her game at a higher rate. Known for her ground skills, Blanchfield has four submission victories – Fiorot has none.
However, Fiorot has a style that we believe will be able to neutralize Blanchfield.
Tough to takedown, Fiorot boasts an impressive 91% takedown defense. Against Blanchfield, who will certainly look to bring the fight to the ground, keeping the fight standing is very important to winning this fight.
Avoiding 69% of an opponent’s significant strikes, Fiorot is as elusive as they come on the feet. If Blanchfield is forced to strike, Fiorot’s ability to evade strikes will fluster the American.
Offensively speaking, Fiorot is impressive. Despite being inaccurate, Fiorot is landing 6.05 significant strikes per minute – fifth most all-time in Women’s Flyweight history. No slouch in the wrestling department, Fiorot is scoring 1.36 takedowns per fifteen minutes at a 46% accuracy.
Scheduled for five rounds, cardio will be of great importance facing the pace Blanchfield is suspected to bring forth. Fiorot, who has been four consecutive decisions and once fought for twenty-five minutes on the regional scene, has yet to show issues in her gas tank.
While expecting this to be a competitive fight, Fiorot’s ability to stay upright and striking advantages have us leaning towards her winning the main event.
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- Best Odds: (Fiorot +160 at Bovada)
- Payout with a $100 Wager: $260
Vicente Luque vs. Jaoquin Buckley
The co-main event comes in the Welterweight division, as Vicente Luque takes on Jaoquin Buckley.
Coming off a victory over former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos, which ended a two-fight skid, Luque is closing back in on cracking the Welterweight division’s top fifteen rankings. Looking to enter the rankings is Buckley, who has won two consecutive fights since returning to 170 pounds.
In what has the ingredients to be an exhilarating fight, we believe that Luque will ultimately prevail.
Since dropping down to Welterweight, Buckley has looked impressive. Known for his striking and power, Buckley has won twelve of his seventeen victories by knockout. Becoming a more well rounded fighter, Buckley has taken to wrestling – landing four takedowns over the last two fights.
Taking a leap up in competition, Buckley has an opportunity to enter the top fifteen rankings with a victory over Luque.
However, we feel that Luque is the better overall fighter and has several advantages over Buckley in this matchup.
An active striker, with sniper-like precision, Luque is landing 1.3 more significant strikes per minute than Buckley and is a staggering 19% more accurate. While Luque isn’t considered a wrestler, he just came off a fight where he scored eight takedowns. With excellent grappling, Luque is dangerous on the ground – winning eight of his twenty-two victories by submission.
The only real concern Buckley offers in this fight is power. Though it’s possible Buckley can connect on Luque, the eleventh ranked Welterweight has only lost once by strikes in thirty-two fights.
With that said, we believe Luque will overwhelm and eventually finish Buckley.
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- Best Odds: Luque -110 at Bovada
- Payout with a $100 wager: $190.91
Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva
We have a showdown in the Middleweight division, as former UFC Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman takes on Bruno Silva.
Falling short against Brad Tavares after two years away due to a broken leg, Weidman will seek his first victory in nearly four years. Facing the former champ is Silva, who is in need of a victory after losses in four of the last five fights.
In what should be an entertaining fight, we believe that Wediman will ultimately prevail.
The scenarios for this fight seem pretty simple. One being that Wediman is going to wrestle and neutralize Silva on the ground. The second being, Silva is going to shrug off Weidman’s takedown attempts and eventually land a fight-ending strike.
Though the latter has legs, we believe that stylistically this is a favorable fight for Weidman.
Although no longer in his prime, Weidman is still an effective and overwhelming wrestler. Landing 3.6 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Weidman’s gameplan heavily relies on getting the fight to the ground. The all-time leader in takedowns in the Middleweight division, Weidman has scored a takedown in sixteen of his eighteen UFC fights.
Silva, who is a powerful striker, has had difficulties against grapplers. Though boasting a decent 73% takedown defense, Silva has been taken down in two of the four fights where an opponent attempted a takedown. Of those two times, Silva gave up seven takedowns in one of the fights.
Weidman will certainly have to be wary of Silva on the feet, especially considering his age and the six knockout losses on his record.
However, with a clear wrestling edge and given Silva has lost seven of ten losses by submission, we believe that Weidman will get this fight to the ground and can potentially tap out Silva.
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- Best Odds: Weidman +215 at BetOnline
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Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Sedriques Dumas
We have an intriguing fight in the Middleweight division, as Nursulton Ruziboev takes on Sedriques Dumas.
A winner of nine consecutive fights, all of which have come by stoppage, Ruziboev will look to build off his successful UFC debut in July of 2023. Facing Ruziboev is Dumas, who has won two straight since dropping his first professional fight.
In what is an intriguing fight, we are siding with Ruziboev.
Although Dumas has won two straight fights, he has been a part of two fights where control time aided him to victory. Landing a mere 1.88 significant strikes per minute and scoring 0.77 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Dumas hasn’t been the most active inside the octagon.
Ruziboev’s UFC debut lasted only 77 seconds, but on the regional scene this wasn’t anything new. Winning thirty-one of thirty-three fights inside the distance, including twenty-one straight wins by stoppage, Ruziboev is a proven finisher.
While Ruziboev’s takedown defense needs work, his ability to escape and get out of bad positions helps him overcome his shortcomings. On the feet, Ruziboev has an arsenal of strikes and is as dangerous as they come. With some wrestling chops, Ruziboev will mix in takedowns once in a while.
Seeing that Dumas’ activity is low and his takedown defense is 40%, there are a multitude of ways for Ruziboev to capitalize. Add in that Ruziboev has forty-one fights and Dumas just fought for the tenth time and there is a stark difference in experience.
Unless Dumas pulls something new out of a hat, we feel strongly that Ruziboev will win.
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Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson
We have a solid fight in the Featherweight division, as Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson clash.
Rattling off two consecutive wins and four of the last five, Algeo comes into this fight closing in on cracking the 145 pound top fifteen rankings. Looking to steal that thunder is Nelson, who has bounced back from a rough patch with two straight wins.
In what is bound to be a battle, we are siding with Algeo to prevail.
Going 1-4-1 in the first six UFC fights, Nelson appeared like he was on his way out of the promotion. Proving otherwise, Nelson has won two fights – as an underdog no less.
However, Nelson’s victories have come over two newer fighters in the promotion.
Algeo is far from new, having fought eight times in the UFC. In Algeo’s most recent fight, he defeated a formerly ranked foe in Alexander Hernandez.
As far as this matchup, Algeo has a drastic striking advantage. Landing 6.11 significant strikes per minute, Algeo nearly doubles Nelson’s striking output. In terms of accuracy, Algeo is 8% more accurate than Nelson. With a one inch height and two inch reach advantage, Algeo has a slight size edge as well.
The one area of concern with Algeo is always takedown defense, as it sits at a porous 56%. Yet, that shouldn’t be much of a factor in this fight. Nelson is landing only 1.15 takedowns per fifteen minutes at a miserable 20% accuracy. In addition, Nelson has only landed a takedown in two of his eight fights inside the octagon.
Largely ineffective as a wrestler, if this fight stays standing, we are certain that Algeo will out-strike Nelson by a wide margin.
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- Best Odds: Algeo -250 at MyBookie
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Chidi Njokuani vs. Rhys McKee
We have a showdown fight in the welterweight division, as Chidi Njokuani and Rhys McKee clash.
After winning four consecutive fights, Njokuani has suffered three straight losses and needs to win before falling completely out of the picture. Facing Njokuani is McKee, who has yet to win in three octagon appearances and is hoping the fourth time’s the charm.
In what should be a fun fight, we are siding with McKee to prevail.
Despite this being McKee’s second UFC stint and having fallen short in all three appearances, this is the Irish fighter’s best matchup.
Taken down in all three fights, McKee has had issues keeping the fight upright. Though it has plagued his UFC career, fighting a fellow striker in Njokuani is the right antidote to turn things around.
McKee, even with the constant takedowns and time being controlled, is landing 6.06 significant strikes per minute. Roughly two more significant strikes per minute than Njokuani.
While Njokuani is dynamic and powerful on the feet, his durability has come into question. Knocked out five times in ten losses, including in two of the last three defeats, the punishment of thirty-three fights appears to have caught up to Njokuani.
With youth, less wear-and-tear and all thirteen wins coming by stoppage, we believe that McKee will finally win his first UFC fight.
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How to Start Betting on UFC — ESPN
With fourteen fights scheduled, there are plenty of opportunities to bet on UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot. If you are looking to get in on the action and are looking for a sportsbook to place a bet on, we’ll show you how to set up an account at our top sportsbook – Bovada.
Step 1: Create an Account
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Other UFC Picks for Tonight (Over/Under + Method of Victory)
Looking for ways to gain an edge before you bet on the fights? Then look no further.
Over/Under Bets on UFC
Among mixed martial arts fans, it’s common knowledge that the unpredictable is typical.
However, there are trends and styles that lean towards a certain bet. In this instance, we are discussing over/under. When trying to decide on an over/under, there are several aspects that go into finding the right side to be on. Observing this card, there are plenty of examples that we have shared for our latest UFC predictions.
Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley
Vicente Luque has a record of 22-9-1. Of those 22 wins, 19 have come by inside the distance (11 knockouts, 8 submissions). In thirty-two fights, Luque has been stopped three times.
Jaoquin Buckley has a record of 17-6. Of those 17 wins, 12 have come inside the distance (12 knockouts). In twenty-three fights, Buckley has been stopped four times.
The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-155 Under)
Luque has gone under 2 ½ rounds in four of the last six fights. Buckley has hit the under 2 ½ mark in ten of the last twelve fights.
Although Luque has only been stopped once in the last twenty-one fights, his ability to finish fights is always a threat to halt the action. With a 86% finishing rate, the under is always in play when Luque steps inside the octagon.
Meanwhile, Buckley has been involved in only two decisions in the past twelve fights. With a 70.5% finishing rate, Buckley’s intentions aren’t to win on the scorecards, but by knockout. Given Buckley’s style, there are inherent risks to getting finished – which has happened in four of Buckley’s six defeats.
Expecting fireworks, this fight is destined to end inside the distance. With the data to back it up, we believe that under 2 ½ rounds is a solid play.
Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson
Bill Algeo has a record of 18-7. Of those 18 wins, 11 have come inside the distance (4 knockouts, 7 submissions). In twenty-five fights, Algeo has been stopped twice.
Kyle Nelson has a record of 15-5-1. Of those 15 wins, 9 have come inside the distance (5 knockouts, 4 submissions). In twenty-one fights, Nelson has been stopped three times.
The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-230 Over)
Algeo has gone over 2 ½ rounds in eight of the last ten fights. Nelson has hit the over 2 ½ mark in four consecutive fights.
Before joining the UFC, Algeo had a finishing rate of 69%. In eight UFC fights, that number has dropped to 61%. Durable, Algeo has not been finished in the last seventeen fights.
As for Nelson, he too had a higher finishing rate before joining the UFC. Seeing a 6% dip in finishing rate, it’s clear the competition inside the octagon has proven difficult to put away. Involved in four consecutive decisions, Nelson looks to be over a difficult patch that saw him drop three of four fights by stoppage.
While Nelson’s durability is certainly the most questionable, Algeo doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power.
Given the recent trends, we believe that this fight is likely decided on the scorecards.
Method of Victory
When trying to figure out the outcome of the fight, it’s important to look through a fighter’s record. There you can gauge whether a fighter is proficient in knockouts, submissions, or both. Lastly, look at what a fighter has done of late to find a trend.
Looking at this card, there are several fighters who are more likely to win by a certain outcome. Check out our method of victory UFC predictions:
Bruno Silva
Bruno Silva has a record of 23-10. Of those 23 wins, 20 have come by knockout.
A pure striker, Silva enters the octagon with the sole intention of knocking his opponent out. With only three decision wins on the ledger, more often than not, Silva has been successful in doing just that.
Facing former Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman, Silva has an excellent chance to notch another knockout. Weidman, who is 39 years old, has lost seven of the last nine fights. Of those seven defeats, five have come by knockout.
If Silva can manage to keep the fight upright, we believe there is a good chance that Silva can get the job done by knockout.
The odds for Silva to win by knockout is (-135).
Rhys McKee
Rhys McKee has a record of 13-5-1. All 13 wins have come by stoppage.
Although McKee has failed to record a victory in three octagon appearances and has once been cut by the UFC, he is still a dangerous fighter. With a 100% finishing rate, McKee doesn’t look for the judges to decide his fate.
Facing Anthony Njokuani, not only is McKee finally matched up against a striker, but against someone who happens to be on a three fight losing streak. To add to that, Njokuani has been stopped in two of those three fights and in eight of his ten losses.
Given McKee’s perfect finishing rate and the fact that Njokuani has been stopped in 80% of his losses, if McKee were to win, we believe it will come by way of stoppage.
While there is a possibility McKee can win by submission, with 10 knockout victories on the ledger and Njokuani having been stopped by strikes five times, the likely stoppage is by way of knockout.
The odds for McKee to win by knockout is (+225).
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Benefits of UFC Bets
1. Plenty of time to study fights
Unlike some of the major sports, which are daily, the UFC holds events weekly or bi-weekly. This gives ample time to break down fights and make educated bets.
2. Fight Cards are filled with opportunities
There are at least ten or more fights on a usual fight card. While not every fight is going to tickle your fancy, there are plenty of other fights to get action on.
3. Excellent props
The options are endless when it comes to UFC props. Whether you’re looking to bet on the exact outcome of a fight or what round the fight ends in, UFC betting sites have given way to the consumer finding precisely what they want action on.
4. Easy for beginners
With readily available information and videos of fights accessible to watch, betting on the UFC for beginners is as easy as betting on boxing or the NFL. Sportsbooks are even starting to provide information on trends, which helps a lot, especially for beginners.
Where to Bet On UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Finding the right UFC betting site that caters to your every need can be tough. Our top 5 picks are as follows:
Our top pick is Bovada, as it offers users some of the most exciting betting odds out there – and don’t forget about the generous bonuses available for all of its users! Make your way to Bovada’s website to find everything you need to know about its latest bonuses and promos.
UFC Predictions – FAQs
How Can I Watch UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot?
UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas will be available to watch in its entirety on ESPN+ – which is ESPN’s streaming service. The main card will be available to watch on ESPN.
The preliminary card starts at 7:00 PM eastern, while the main card starts at 10:00 PM eastern.
Who’s Fighting on UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot?
The main event of UFC Fight Night features an important fight in the women’s flyweight division, as the second-ranked Erin Blachfield takes on the third-ranked Manon Fiorot in what appears to be a title eliminator.
Where Can I Find the Best Odds for UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot?
Bovada has the best odds for your UFC picks. According to Bovada, Manon Fiorot is a +160 underdog. If you placed $100 on Fiorot, your total payout will be $260.
Erin Blachfield comes in as a -185 favorite, which means you have to place $185 on Blanchfield to win $100.
Tips for Picking the Right UFC Bets
1. Sign Up for Multiple Sportsbooks
There are several reasons why signing up for multiple sportsbooks makes sense. For one, you can compare odds. This is called line shopping.
The benefit of line shopping is to cash in on the odds with the higher payout.
Another reason why signing up for multiple betting sites is a good idea is you get to enjoy several sports bonuses at the same time. Whether it’s deposit bonuses or free bets, sportsbooks have enticing offers that give the consumer little reason not to get in on the action.
Plus, you’ll find additional bonuses and markets for other betting categories like horse racing and football – which is great if you tend to place bets on other sports as well.
2. Don’t Be Afraid to Hedge
In every sport, upsets occur. In mixed martial arts, the unpredictable often shines brightest.
If you place a parlay that is one fight away from cashing in, even if the odds are tremendously in your favor, don’t be afraid to hedge.
In a sport where a fight can end on a dime, whether a stoppage occurs or an injury halts the bout, it’s better to be safer. After all, profit is profit until it isn’t.
3. Keep an Eye on Live Betting Odds
When the fight is underway, and you have action on a particular fighter, it’s smart to watch the live betting odds. Especially if the fighter you picked dominates and looks to be closing in on cashing your bet.
The reason to look is that in that scenario, the opposition’s odds will be astronomically inflated. To miss an opportunity to sprinkle some on the opponent and assure profit could be costly.
For example, when round five started between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards in their second fight, Usman was a -5000 favorite, according to BetOnline. Edwards was a +1200 underdog to win and +4000 to win via knockout in round five. Given that the odds continue to change during the fight, Edwards could be an even bigger underdog.
Anyways, Edwards went on to stun Usman with a head-kick knockout with less than a minute left in the fight – leaving backers of Usman stunned and with losing bets.
If you regularly find yourself betting on other sports as well, check out our March Madness betting guide.
Did You Like Our Latest UFC Picks & Predictions?
That’s it for today’s UFC predictions.
Whether your money is on Blanchfield or Fiorot, make sure you are taking the best price possible – which will usually be available either at Bovada or BetOnline.
Thanks for reading and remember to bet responsibly!
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