One of the biggest ironies in the 2018 election for New Jersey’s U.S. senate seat is how similar the contest looks to the 2002 election, when U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli backed out a month before the general election.
Today, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez’s poll numbers in the state are dismal, with less than a third of those polled showing confidence in him.
The poll numbers have prompted his Democratic primary opponent Lisa McCormick to ask whether voters want her to beat Menendez in the primary, or wait until November when a Republican might.
This is a nightmare for the national Democratic Party, which is seeking to regain control of the U.S. Senate and needs to retain Menendez’s seat.
The poll numbers are very similar to those that Torricelli had when he ran for reelection in 2002. Many people still believe Torricelli would have lost in the general election.
Menendez may face the same problems in the general election if the polls remain as low as they are.
You can bet if Menendez wins over McCormick, the GOP will start bashing Menendez right away to try and depress his poll numbers even more.
McCormick clearly believes Menendez has been weakened by the corruption case brought against him last year by the U.S. Department of Justice. A hung jury of 10 to 2 in favor of acquittal resulted in a mistrial. When prosecutors sought to retry the case earlier this year, the judge threw out seven of the most serious charges, saying the feds had failed to prove their case during the original trial. The Justice Department then chose not to pursue the case, leaving Menendez to run for re-election bruised but not broken.
For national Democrats who will have to ride whatever horse comes out of the June 5 primary, the issue is bigger than loyalty to a once-powerful senator. At stake is the makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court. Anthony Kennedy, 81, is rumored to be considering retirement. He has been a key swing vote on a number of issues. Even if he holds on for another term, Democrats will need control of the U.S. Senate in order to block the GOP from appointing a much more conservative judge to the court over the next two years.
Unfortunately, Democrats do not have another Frank Lautenberg to step in and run in Menendez’s place, the way they did with Torricelli.
Ironically, Torricelli is one of the people who had hoped to replace Menendez if the court had convicted him last year.
Who has motivation in county political war?
The challenge for the two people seeking to become the next chair of the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO) is whether they can get their committee people out to Kearny High School on June 12.
Amy DeGise is seeking to keep state Senator and Union City Mayor Brian Stack from getting the seat.
The chair of the HCDO will have a huge influence over future candidates, including who will get HCDO support in next year’s election for county executive.
DeGise’s father, Hudson County Executive Tom DeGise, is a five-term incumbent and is seeking reelection. Stack, along with the mayors of Hoboken, Jersey City and West New York, want someone else.
Amy and her father appear to have the support of the other eight mayors of Hudson County towns. But with Jersey City and Union City as the largest cities, Stack has a presumed edge – if Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop can garner the Jersey City committee votes on behalf of Stack.
Stack supporters in Jersey City believe they will be able to bring a large majority of the Jersey City committee votes to Stack and that the selection will not be close.
But others believe Jersey City will not come out for Stack in the numbers Stack needs for a clear majority.
Stack has the support of Freeholder Bill O’Dea on the West Side of Jersey City and state Senator Sandra Cunningham on the southside. But DeGise has received support from Freeholder Jerry Walker, who has a huge presence in recreation and other programs. Cunningham is powerful, but some say she’s not been out in the field working to secure committee votes for Stack.
To be elected chair, DeGise or Stack must get a majority of the committee votes cast on June 12. There are 900 total committee votes throughout the county. Jersey City has the vast majority, with slightly more than a third of the total for the county.
Union City has about 78; North Bergen – which is expected to come out for DeGise – has about 74.
West New York is expected to be split between DeGise and Stack.
“Stack is working West New York very hard to get his committee votes there,” said a north Hudson observer.
While Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla supports Stack, most of the Hoboken city council does not.
“I think most Hoboken committee people will stay home and not vote at all,” said one Hoboken observer. “They really have nothing to gain.”
Stack’s strong supporter on the city council is Michael Russo, who generally gets out his vote.
Bhalla apparently has been actively campaigning
Bayonne with its 102 committee votes could play a big role in a DeGise victory if they can get them to Kearny in time for the vote.
Committee people, unlike those elected to public office, generally have jobs they have to get from, and many may not be able to get to Kearny in time.
O’Dea and Stack will likely bus committee people there. Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis is expected to do the same.
Al Sullivan may be reached at asullivan@hudsonreporter.com.
