UFC Picks for Today – Predictions, Tips & Odds for the Latest UFC Fight Cards

With new fights happening every week, it’s pretty tough to keep up with the favorites, underdogs – and, most importantly, the value bets.

But with our expert UFC picks, you can always stay ahead of the curve. So, what’s up for this week?

If you haven’t yet, clear your schedule and get in on the action at sports betting sites like Betwhale. But first – read our UFC predictions and get those value bets in.

Best Sites for UFC Betting

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Summary of Our Top UFC Predictions for UFC on ESPN 56

A quick breakdown of our top UFC fight predictions today, which are explained in more detail in the article, for this upcoming UFC on ESPN 56 card.

Bet	Odds	Sportsbook
Derrick Lewis wins in Round 1 or 2	+120	Betwhale
Alex Caceres wins by decision	+400	Betwhale
Robelis Despaigne wins by TKO/KO in Round 1	+125	Betwhale
Derrick Lewis wins by TKO/KO	-138	Betwhale
Nursulton Ruziboev wins inside the distance	+200	Betwhale
Carlos Ulberg wins inside the distance	-115	Betwhale
Mateusz Rebecki wins inside the distance	-135	Betwhale
Sean Woodson wins by decision	+100	Bovada
Robelis Despaigne wins by TKO/KO	-165	BetOnline

How We Picked The Best UFC Bets

• Derrick Lewis wins in Round 1 or 2  – If you are backing Derrick Lewis and are looking to squeeze out some more value, we recommend picking the knockout artist to win in round 1 or 2. Sporting an 85.1% finishing rate, Lewis has won his last four victories in either round one or two. Add in that opponent Rodrigo Nascimento has been stopped once by knockout in round one and at plus money, you can’t go wrong with this unique bet.

• Alex Caceres wins by decision – Although we aren’t backing Alex Caceres, the odds for the former ultimate fighter contestant to win by decision are too good to ignore. Winning seven of the last nine fights, Caceres is in the midst of his best run in the UFC. Though capable of winning by stoppage, Caceres has won ten of his twenty-one victories by decision. Facing Sean Woodson, who has been involved in eight decisions in thirteen fights, it’s likely this fight is going to the scorecards. At +400, Caceres to win by decision makes more sense than taking him to win by moneyline.

• Robelis Despaigne wins by TKO/KO in Round 1 – In five mixed martial arts fights, Robelis Despaigne has defeated all his opponents in the opening round by knockout. With two coming in less than four seconds, it’s safe to assume the Despaigne has legitimate one-punch knockout power. Though opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta has never been stopped, it’s hard to ignore that at +125, you can pick Despaigne to win by the type of finish and round that he has done in all five of his fights.

Best UFC Picks Today

Here are some of our UFC predictions today and the latest picks for UFC betting:

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

• Pick: Lewis (-161)
• Best Bet:  Lewis wins by TKO/KO (-138)

The main event comes in the heavyweight division, as the twelfth-ranked Derrick Lewis takes on the fifteenth-ranked Rodrigo Nascimento.

A loser of four of the last five fights, the two-time title challenger Derrick Lewis finds himself at a crossroads. A victory would likely catapult Lewis back into the top ten and keep his title hopes alive. A loss would potentially be the end of the road.

A striker, with true one-punch knockout power, Lewis can never be counted out in a fight. Boasting physical strength, Lewis has escaped bad positions by merely pushing opponents off him. Though lacking a ground game, if in top control, Lewis possesses some of the most dangerous ground-and-pound in mixed martial arts.

Meanwhile, on a three-fight win streak, Rodrigo Nascimento comes into his first UFC main event with momentum. Having recently jumped into the heavyweight division’s top fifteen, Nascimento has an excellent opportunity to raise his stock with a statement victory.

A grappler with excellent submissions, Nascimento has won six of his eleven victories by tapout. On the feet, Nascimento boasts a blend of power, output, and accuracy. While Nascimento can hold his own striking, it’s the mat where the Brazilian is at his best.

In what should be an entertaining main event, we are backing Lewis.

There is no question that Lewis is struggling and this matchup with Nascimento is stylistically problematic. Sporting a 53% takedown defense, Lewis has a tough time keeping the fight upright. In fact, in two of the last three fights, Lewis was taken down twelve times.

However, Nascimento isn’t extremely effective at getting the fight to the ground. Landing a takedown in only two of the last seven fights, at a 33% accuracy, Nascimento has often fought standing.

An issue in this fight, as Lewis is a knockout artist. Holding the UFC’s all-time knockout record with fourteen, Lewis is one of the heaviest hitters to grace the octagon.

Although we recognize that it will ultimately be on Lewis to keep the fight standing, Nascimento has won the last three fights by decision. Not being able to put away opponents of late, the chances Nascimento can survive five rounds without being tagged by Lewis seems slim.

Especially when you consider that Nascimento is absorbing 4.76 significant strikes per minute and is being struck on 57% of the opponent’s significant strikes.

Given Lewis only needs one punch to put away an opponent, we feel more comfortable over a five-round fight that power will prevail over Nascimento’s attempts to neutralize the knockout artist.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

• Pick: Ruziboev (+129)
• Best Bet: Ruziboev wins inside the distance (+200)

The co-main event comes in the welterweight division, as the eleventh-ranked Joaquin Buckley takes on Nursulton Ruziboev.

Coming off the biggest victory of his career, defeating Vicente Luque, Buckley is ranked and looking to extend his win streak to four. Facing Buckley is Nursulton Ruziboev, who has won ten consecutive fights by first-round stoppage.

In what should be an exciting fight, we are siding with Ruziboev.

Since dropping down to Welterweight, Buckley has looked impressive. Known for his striking and power, Buckley has won thirteen of his eighteen victories by knockout. Becoming a more well-rounded fighter, Buckley has taken to wrestling – landing four takedowns over the last three fights.

Recently defeating Vicente Luque by stoppage, Buckley proved that he can be a contender at 170 pounds.

While Ruziboev may not be a household name, it’s time to start paying attention. Needing less than five minutes to dispatch two foes inside the octagon, Ruziboev has won his last twenty-two victories by stoppage.

Although Ruziboev’s takedown defense needs work, his ability to escape bad positions has helped him overcome his shortcomings. On the feet, Ruziboev has an arsenal of strikes and is as dangerous as they come. With some wrestling chops, Ruziboev will mix in takedowns.

Expecting this fight to be absolute fireworks, both men have paths to victory.

However, it’s Ruziboev’s that we favor. Standing 6’5, Ruziboev towers over Buckley by seven inches. Significant, as Buckley whose significant strike accuracy of 34% is already poor, has to adjust his striking to reach Ruziboev.

Having said that, Buckley will need to get inside the pocket to do damage. Often applying pressure and blitzing opponents, that might not be an issue. Yet, it could also be his undoing. Ruziboev is an excellent counter-striker and if Buckley leaves an opening, we believe the fight will be a wrap.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg

• Pick: Ulberg (-260)
• Best Bet: Ulberg wins inside the distance (-115)

We have a showdown in the light heavyweight division, as the eleventh-ranked Alonzo Menifield takes on Carlos Ulberg.

Unbeaten in the last five fights, with a recent victory over Dustin Jacoby, Alonzo Menifield is closing in on cracking the top ten. Facing Menifield is Carlos Ulberg, who has won five consecutive fights, with the last four coming via stoppage.

In a pivotal fight in the light heavyweight division, we believe that Ulberg will ultimately come out on top.

Breaking out and in the midst of his best run to date, Menifield has shown vast improvements within his takedown defense and cardio during this unbeaten streak. Physically imposing, Menifield boasts strength. Known for his striking, Menifield can disrupt a fight with one punch.

The problem we foresee for Menifield in this fight though, is keeping pace with Ulberg.

A former kickboxer, Ulberg is dynamic on the feet. Landing 7.29 significant strikes, at a 59% accuracy, Ulberg is as active and precise as they come. With legitimate power, Ulberg has recorded six knockouts among his nine victories.

Expecting this fight to take place on the feet, we believe that Ulberg is the better all-around striker. Technical and landing 3.37 more significant strikes per minute than Menifield, Ulberg can win alone on outpointing his foe.

Menifield may have a slight power advantage, but Ulberg has power too, and an edge in cardio. The deeper the fight goes, the more likely we see Ulberg not only winning, but finishing Menifield.

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki

• Pick: Rebecki (-400)
• Best Bet: Rebecki wins inside the distance (-135)

We have a fun matchup in the lightweight division, as Carlos Diego Ferreira takes on Mateusz Rebecki.

Returning to the octagon for the first time in 2024, Carlos Diego Ferreira will look to build off his recent knockout victory over Michael Johnson. Facing Ferreira is Mateusz Rebecki, who has won sixteen consecutive fights, with three coming inside the octagon.

In a fight destined to be a battle, we are siding with Rebecki.

Once a top-fifteen lightweight, Ferreira hit a roadblock, losing three consecutive fights. Plagued by injuries, Ferreira has been limited to one fight in the last twenty-nine months. The lone fight was a knockout victory over Michael Johnson in May of 2023, which snapped the three-fight losing streak.

A BJJ black belt, Ferreira has oft elected to strike. Landing 4.66 significant strikes per minute, Ferreira is active and does a good job racking up the strikes. Not known for one-punch power, Ferreira wears down opponents with an accumulation of strikes before putting them away.

While Ferreira once was viewed as a potential title contender, those days are likely over. At 39 years old and with one win in the last four years over Michael Johnson, whose record is 22-19, Ferreira is going to need to turn back the clock to take out a young wolf.

On fire, Rebecki has stormed into the UFC and won three fights in sixteen months. Winning the last two fights by stoppage, Rebecki is beginning to make some noise.

While Ferreira is the toughest opponent Rebecki will have faced in the UFC, the Pole has significant edges in this fight. On the feet, Rebecki holds a slight advantage in output and is 16% more accurate. Landing 4.16 takedowns per fifteen minutes, at a 72% accuracy, Rebecki is significantly the better wrestler.

Expecting this to be a fun matchup, we believe that Rebecki is not only the better fighter on paper, but inside the octagon. Given Ferreira’s age and that his last two losses came by stoppage, there is a good chance Rebecki will win his third consecutive fight by finish.

Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson

• Pick: Woodson (-222)
• Best Bet: Woodson wins by decision (+100)

We have a showdown in the featherweight division, as Alex Caceres takes on Sean Woodson.

Falling out of the top fifteen after a loss to Giga Chikadze, Alex Caceres will look to rebound and move closer to being ranked once more. Facing Caceres is Sean Woodson, who is unbeaten in the last five fights.

In what is an important fight in the featherweight division, we are picking Woodson to prevail.

A kickboxer with good grappling, Caceres likes to stick to the outside and outpoint opponents. While Caceres is dangerous on the ground, with seven submissions on the record, he does not have the adequate wrestling to bring the fight to the mat.

Significant, as Woodson has had difficulties against those who attempted to take him down.

Standing 6’2 and with a 78-inch reach, Woodson is one of the biggest featherweights to grace the octagon. A pure striker, Woodson utilizes his size by keeping his distance and firing off strikes from the outside. Backed by an excellent jab, Woodson brings forth solid output.

While Woodson has done an excellent job staying upright of late, up to an 84% takedown defense, it’s yet to be seen if his improvements would hold up against a pure wrestler.

However, there is no need to worry about that against Caceres. In the last fifteen fights, Caceres has landed only five takedowns.

Expecting this fight to place on the feet, both men will look to implement their similar style of sticking to the outside and outpointing their opponent. Having said that, with a better jab, more output, and a significant size and reach advantage, we feel that Woodson will be the more effective of the two.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne

• Pick: Despaigne (-250)
• Best Bet: Despaigne wins by TKO/KO (-165)

Opening the main card, we have a showdown in the heavyweight division, as Waldo Cortes-Acosta takes on Robelis Despaigne.

On a two-fight win streak, with the most recent win coming over former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is closing in on cracking the top fifteen. Looking to play spoiler is Robelis Despaigne, who is undefeated and is coming off an eighteen-second knockout victory over Josh Parisian in his UFC debut in March of 2024.

In what should be an exciting fight, we are siding with Despaigne.

A striker, Cortes-Acosta is as active as they come. Among the top ten all-time leaders in significant strikes per minute, at 6.13, Cortes-Acosta can rack up the strikes. While the power that knocked out four opponents on the regional scene has only translated once in the UFC, with more time inside the octagon, Cortes-Acosta’s growth will eventually lead to finishes.

The problem for Cortes-Acosta however, is that he needs that power to show up in this fight.

An Olympic bronze medalist in Taekwondo, Despaigne has won all five professional fights in the opening round by knockout. A massive heavyweight, Despaigne is 6’7 with an 84-inch reach. With athleticism and power, Despaigne is a scary man to stand across from inside the octagon.

While Despaigne looks the part, he does have unknowns within his game regarding cardio, wrestling, grappling, and takedown defense. Normally this would be a red flag, but given the opponent, we don’t feel that it’s time to raise the alarm.

Cortes-Acosta is a nice addition to the heavyweight division, but outside impressive performances over Lukasz Brzeski and Chase Sharman, the Dominican has barely skated by. In fact, Cortes-Acosta’s last victory over Andrei Arlovski, he was outstruck in significant strikes 58-49.

Against Despaigne, who has won his last four fights in thirty-seven seconds combined, Cortes-Acosta will have to hit another gear to overcome this threat.

Unfortunately, we don’t see that happening. Instead, we believe Despaigne will continue on his warpath, defeating Cortes-Acosta by knockout.

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Other UFC Picks for Tonight (Over/Under + Method of Victory)

Looking for ways to gain an edge before you bet on the fights? Then look no further.

Over/Under Bets on UFC

Among mixed martial arts fans, it’s common knowledge that the unpredictable is typical.

However, some trends and styles lean towards a certain bet. In this instance, we are discussing over/under. When trying to decide on an over/under, several aspects go into finding the right side to be on. Observing this card, there are plenty of examples that we have shared for our latest UFC predictions.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Joaquin Buckley has a record of 18-6. Of those 18 wins, 13 have come by inside the distance (13 knockouts). In twenty-four fights, Buckley has been stopped four times.

Nursulton Ruziboev has a record of 34-8-2 with two no-contests. Of those 34 wins, 32 have come by inside the distance (12 knockouts, 20 submissions). In forty-six fights, Ruziboev has been stopped twice.

The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-220 Under)

Buckley has gone under 2 ½ rounds in three of the last four fights. Ruziboev has hit the under 2 ½ mark in ten consecutive fights.

A striker with legitimate power, Buckley has won 72.2% of his fights by knockout. Coming into his own of late, Buckley proved in a recent victory over Vicente Luque, that he is among the top fifteen welterweights in the division. With eleven of the last fourteen fights resulting in a stoppage, Buckley has made it known that he is willing to go out on his shield to put away his opponent.

Meanwhile, with a 94.1% finishing rate, Ruziboev enters the octagon with the intention of stopping his opponent. Well-rounded, Ruziboev boasts power on the feet and is an excellent grappler with dangerous submissions. Winning ten consecutive fights, all in round one, Ruziboev is peaking.

Expecting this to be an action-packed fight, we believe that both Buckley and Ruziboev are too dangerous for this fight to go the distance. Buckley has only gone to the scorecards in 29.1% of his fights, while Ruziboev has only been to a decision in 21.7% of his fights. Given the data, the under 2 ½ is the play.

Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson

Alex Caceres has a record of 21-14 with one no-contest. Of those 21 wins, 11 have come by inside the distance (4 knockouts, 7 submissions). In thirty-six fights, Caceres has been stopped eight times.

Sean Woodson has a record of 11-1-1. Of those 11 wins, 4 have come by inside the distance (3 knockouts, 1 submission).

The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-294 Over)

Caceres has gone over 2 ½ rounds in three of the last four fights. Woodson has hit the over 2 ½ mark in three consecutive fights and six of the last seven fights.

Although Caceres has been finished eight times in his career, seven came by submission. Given Woodson is a striker and has only one submission victory on the ledger, we find it highly unlikely that Woodson is going to tap out or finish Caceres.

While the odds aren’t exactly juicy, this play could be a piece to a parlay.

Method of Victory

When trying to figure out the outcome of the fight, it’s important to look through a fighter’s record. There you can gauge whether a fighter is proficient in knockouts, submissions, or both. Lastly, look at what a fighter has done of late to find a trend.

Looking at this card, there are several fighters who are more likely to win by a certain outcome. Check out our method of victory UFC predictions:

Derrick Lewis

Derrick Lewis has a record of 27-12 with one no-contest. Of those 27 wins, 22 have come via knockout.

A striker, with perhaps the heaviest hands of all time in the octagon, Lewis is a knockout artist to the core. The record holder for knockout victories in the UFC with fourteen, Lewis enters the octagon with the intention of shutting off his opponent’s lights. Winning 81.4% of his fights by knockout, it’s safe to say that Lewis has been successful at doing just that.

Facing Rodrigo Nascimento, who despite being a grappler has often struck inside the octagon and whose lone defeat came by knockout, we believe that if Lewis were to win, it would be by knockout.

The odds for Lewis to win by decision is (-135).

Robelis Despaigne

Robelis Despaigne has a record of 5-0. All five wins have come by knockout.

A destroyer, Despaigne in his short career, has dismantled five opponents in the opening round. While Despaigne’s first professional fight nearly made it to the second round, the last four have ended in thirty-seven seconds combined. Two of the fights lasted less than four seconds.

Standing 6’7 and with an 84-inch reach, Despaigne is a monster for a heavyweight. With a background in Taekwondo, winning a bronze medal in the Olympics, Despaigne is a talent to behold on the feet.

Facing Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who has never been stopped in his career, Despaigne certainly has his hands full.

However, Cortes-Acosta lacks power and has been to a decision in four of his five UFC fights. With no real threat coming at Despaigne, we expect Cortes-Acosta to be in a state of danger for the entirety of the fight – making a finish highly likely at some point.

The odds for Despaigne to win by knockout is (-165).

Benefits of UFC Bets

1. Plenty of time to study fights

   Unlike some of the major sports, which are daily, the UFC holds events weekly or bi-weekly. This gives ample time to break down fights and make educated bets.

2. Fight Cards are filled with opportunities

   There are at least ten or more fights on a usual fight card. While not every fight is going to tickle your fancy, there are plenty of other fights to get action on.

3. Excellent props

   The options are endless when it comes to UFC props. Whether you’re looking to bet on the exact outcome of a fight or what round the fight ends in, UFC betting sites have given way to the consumer finding precisely what they want action on.

4. Easy for beginners

   With readily available information and videos of fights accessible to watch, betting on the UFC for beginners is as easy as betting on boxing or the NFL. Sportsbooks are even starting to provide information on trends, which helps a lot, especially for beginners.

Where to Bet On UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Finding the right UFC betting site that caters to your every need can be tough. Our top 5 picks are as follows:

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
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📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS

Our top pick is Betwhale, as it offers users some of the most exciting betting odds out there – and don’t forget about the generous bonuses available for all of its users! Make your way to Betwhale’s website to find everything you need to know about its latest bonuses and promos.

UFC Predictions – FAQs

How Can I Watch UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento?

UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento will be available to watch in its entirety on ESPN and ESPN+ – which is ESPN’s streaming service.

The preliminary card starts at 4:00 PM Eastern, while the main card starts at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Who’s Fighting on UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento?

The main event of UFC on ESPN 56 features an important fight in the heavyweight division, as the twelfth-ranked Derrick Lewis takes on the fifteenth-ranked Rodrigo Nascimento.

Where Can I Find the Best Odds for UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento?

Betwhale has the best odds for your UFC picks. According to Betwhale, Rodrigo Nascimento is a +143 underdog. If you placed $100 on Nascimento, your total payout will be $243.

Derrick Lewis comes in as a -161 favorite, which means you have to place $161 on Lewis to win $100.

Expert Tips & Tricks for Picking the Right UFC Bets

1. Sign Up for Multiple Sportsbooks

   There are several reasons why signing up for multiple sportsbooks makes sense. For one, you can compare odds. This is called line shopping.

   The benefit of line shopping is to cash in on the odds with the higher payout.

   Another reason why signing up for multiple betting sites is a good idea is you get to enjoy several sports bonuses at the same time. Whether it’s deposit bonuses or free bets, sportsbooks have enticing offers that give the consumer little reason not to get in on the action.

   Plus, you’ll find additional bonuses and markets for other betting categories like horse racing and football – which is great if you tend to place bets on other sports as well.

2. Don’t Be Afraid to Hedge

   In every sport, upsets occur. In mixed martial arts, the unpredictable often shines brightest.

   If you place a parlay that is one fight away from cashing in, even if the odds are tremendously in your favor, don’t be afraid to hedge.

   In a sport where a fight can end on a dime, whether a stoppage occurs or an injury halts the bout, it’s better to be safer. After all, profit is profit until it isn’t.

3. Keep an Eye on Live Betting Odds

   When the fight is underway, and you have action on a particular fighter, it’s smart to watch the live betting odds. Especially if the fighter you picked dominates and looks to be closing in on cashing your bet.

   The reason to look is that in that scenario, the opposition’s odds will be astronomically inflated. To miss an opportunity to sprinkle some on the opponent and assure profit could be costly.

   For example, when round five started between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards in their second fight, Usman was a -5000 favorite, according to BetOnline. Edwards was a +1200 underdog to win and +4000 to win via knockout in round five. Given that the odds continue to change during the fight, Edwards could be an even bigger underdog.

Anyways, Edwards went on to stun Usman with a head-kick knockout with less than a minute left in the fight – leaving backers of Usman stunned and with losing bets.

If you regularly find yourself betting on other sports as well, check out our March Madness betting guide.

Did You Like Our Latest UFC Picks & Predictions?

That’s it for today’s UFC fight predictions.

Whether your money is on Lewis or Nascimento, make sure you are taking the best price possible – which will usually be available either at Betwhale or Bovada.

Thanks for reading and remember to bet responsibly!

 

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