The race for governor of New Jersey has become one of the most competitive political contests in the country. Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are tied, according to a poll released September 26 by Emerson College Polling, PIX11, and The Hill. The survey found both candidates at 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Conducted on September 22–23 among 935 likely voters, the poll carries a margin of error of ±3.1 points.
The poll came just days after the first debate, raising concerns for Democrats hoping to prevent a Republican flip in a state where Donald Trump performed better than expected in recent elections. It also followed a series of Democratic special election wins in Republican states earlier this year, including Iowa, which shows how unpredictable voter behavior has become.
A second survey, conducted by Save Jersey and Valcour on September 23–24, reinforced the closeness of the race. That poll of 1,274 likely voters showed Sherrill at 47 percent, Ciattarelli at 45 percent, and 7 percent undecided, with a margin of error of ±2.8 points.
- Polls place Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli in a statistical tie, with 7–11% of voters undecided.
- Gender and age splits remain sharp, as Sherrill leads with women and younger voters, while Ciattarelli dominates among men and older voters.
- Candidate wealth disclosures and the release of Sherrill’s military records have become defining controversies in the final weeks of the race.
Gender and Age Gaps Define Voter Support
The Emerson poll revealed clear demographic divides. Women support Sherrill by 46% to 36%, while men favor Ciattarelli 51% to 39%. Women are also more uncertain, with 15% undecided compared to 6% of men.
Age trends follow a similar pattern. Voters under 40 strongly back Sherrill, 58% to 24%. For voters in their 40s, Sherrill leads 47% to 40%. However, Ciattarelli holds an advantage with those over 50, leading 52% to 36%.
These patterns point to the central challenge of the race: Sherrill must strengthen her appeal among older voters, while Ciattarelli seeks to gain ground with independents and suburban moderates.
Affordability, Property Taxes, and Education Drive Debate
Affordability remains the main issue in Ciattarelli’s campaign, particularly rising electricity bills. According to Emerson’s data, 36% of Democrats blame utility companies, whereas 36% of Republicans blame Governor Phil Murphy. Independents are split, with 27% blaming Murphy and 23% pointing to utilities.
Alongside energy costs, property taxes, and education policy have become central campaign battlegrounds — all of which consistently rank as the top voter concerns and carry weight across party lines.
New Jersey is one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections in 2025, along with Virginia. The results will serve as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, influencing national strategies for both parties.
Sherrill’s Military Records Leak Raises Questions
The race took a sharp turn after reports emerged that unredacted military records of Mikie Sherrill had been released to an ally of Ciattarelli. The documents revived controversy around her 1994 graduation from the U.S. Naval Academy, where she was disciplined during a cheating scandal.
On September 27, Ciattarelli publicly pressed Sherrill to release sealed records, questioning her transparency. The issue has fueled a wider debate about privacy and ethics during the campaign.
Former President Donald Trump amplified the controversy on Truth Social, praising Ciattarelli as “tough on crime and cutting taxes” while attacking Sherrill as “close to incompetent” and accusing her of supporting open borders and progressive policies.
Both Candidates’ Finances Under the Microscope
The financial backgrounds of both candidates have also become campaign issues.
- Jack Ciattarelli, age 63, has earned nearly $14.9 million since 2012, with his largest gain in 2017 when he sold his Galen medical publishing company for $7.1 million. His campaign reported he has paid almost $4 million in federal, state, and property taxes. In September, his campaign allowed reporters two hours to review — but not copy — his tax returns at an office in Clinton, a limited-access approach he once criticized when used by Democrat Phil Murphy.
- Mikie Sherrill, age 53, reported a net worth of $9.4 million in her August financial disclosure, largely based on the income of her husband, Jason Hedberg. Their 2022 joint tax return reported $3.2 million in income, including her $174,000 congressional salary. Sherrill owns no individual stocks, holding only exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This detail challenges Ciattarelli’s frequent claim that she tripled her net worth through stock holdings since entering Congress in 2019.
Financial transparency remains a sensitive issue for both campaigns, with critics questioning whether each candidate has disclosed enough to the public.
The final stretch of the campaign is expected to be fast-paced and closely fought. The second and final debate between Sherrill and Ciattarelli is scheduled for Wednesday, October 8, in New Brunswick. Early in-person voting begins on Saturday, October 25, running through Sunday, November 2, before Election Day on November 4.
