A 2.7-magnitude earthquake in Bergen County, New Jersey, occurred last week, days after a separate tremor in Hasbrouck Heights. According to Alexander Gates, a geology professor at Rutgers University Newark campus, such events are consistent with a long-term 40-year cycle of earthquakes affecting the New York metropolitan area.
In 2020, Gates and his graduate student, Michael Kalczynski, analyzed available data and concluded the region would see an upswing in earthquakes over the next several years. Their findings projected that the area was overdue for an earthquake of magnitude 3.8 or greater.
On April 5, 2024, a 4.8-magnitude earthquake struck Tewksbury Township, New Jersey, with shaking felt in New Jersey, New York, and neighboring states. Gates stated that this earthquake supported the prediction made four years earlier. The findings were presented at a meeting of the Geological Society of America but were not published. Gates said that if the work had been published, he would be famous.
- Rutgers’ research identified a repeating 40-year cycle of earthquakes in the New York–New Jersey region, with recent events matching the pattern.
- A 2020 forecast of a magnitude 3.8 or higher quake was followed by the April 5, 2024, magnitude 4.8 earthquake in Tewksbury Township.
- The Ramapo Fault is traditionally seen as the main source of quakes, but Gates attributes recent activity to younger, 65-million-year-old faults.
Seismic Activity in 2024 and 2025
Gates reported that around 200 earthquakes occurred in the region in 2024. Smaller events have continued in 2025, including Tuesday’s 2.7-magnitude quake near Hillsdale and Saturday’s quake in Hasbrouck Heights.
He explained that the April 2024 earthquake released tension along certain fault lines while creating tension in others, leading to subsequent earthquakes. This type of low-level seismic activity, according to his data, can last for several years. His records indicate that the cycle he identified has been occurring since at least 1884.
Disagreement Over the Ramapo Fault Theory
The Ramapo Fault, about 200 million years old, has traditionally been considered the source of earthquakes in the area. It runs from Pennsylvania through New Jersey, passing through Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Passaic, and Bergen counties, and ending in Westchester County, New York.
Gates said the recent quakes, including the Hasbrouck Heights event, are not close to the Ramapo Fault. He attributes them to younger faults, about 65 million years old, created by the pulling of the region’s tectonic plates to the east. These faults run through the region and extend under New York City.
Earthquake Characteristics in the Northeast
In North Jersey, earthquakes are often shallow, so people hear them as well as feel them. Gates has explained that the sound comes from the cracking of rock.
Seismological data cited in the source show that:
- About 900,000 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or less occur annually worldwide, usually unfelt.
- Around 30,000 earthquakes each year range from magnitude 2.5 to 5.4 and may cause minor damage.
- About 500 earthquakes annually measure magnitude 5.5 to 6.0 and may cause slight building damage.
- Approximately 100 earthquakes each year range from 6.1 to 6.9 and can cause significant damage.
- Around 20 earthquakes annually fall between magnitude 7.0 and 7.9 and are considered major.
- Earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater occur on average once every five to ten years and can destroy communities near the epicenter.
Regional Earthquake Data and Expert Assessments
Since 1900, the New Jersey area has experienced 355 earthquakes of magnitude 1.0 or greater. Only 20 of those reached magnitude 3.0 or higher, which are generally felt by people.
Andrew Lloyd, assistant research professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, stated that the two recent quakes could be aftershocks from the April 2024 event, and that the quake on Tuesday was likely triggered by Saturday’s event.
He noted that while California is located on a plate boundary with frequent earthquakes, the New York region is within a tectonic plate—an intraplate setting—where earthquakes are still possible.
Folarin “Fola” Kolawole, assistant professor of structural geology at Columbia, said ancient faults in the New York–New Jersey region are active and can remain dormant for long periods. He stated there is potential for an earthquake greater than magnitude 5.0.
Why East Coast Quakes Travel Farther
East Coast earthquakes can be felt over larger distances than similar events in the West. This is due to older, harder, and less fractured bedrock in the eastern U.S., which transmits seismic energy more efficiently. The younger, more fractured rock of the West Coast absorbs energy more quickly, limiting how far shaking can travel.
Earthquake Safety Recommendations
The U.S. Geological Survey advises that during an earthquake, individuals should:
- Drop to hands and knees.
- Cover the head and neck with arms.
- Hold on to a sturdy table or desk until the shaking stops.
- People should stay away from windows and heavy furniture, check for injuries, and inspect for damage to gas, water, and electrical lines.
