UFC Picks for Today – Predictions, Tips & Odds for the Latest UFC Fight Cards

Fact Checked by Ryan Hatfield

With new fights happening every week, it’s pretty tough to keep up with the favorites, underdogs – and, most importantly, the value bets.

But with our expert UFC picks, you can always stay ahead of the curve. So, what’s up for this week?

If you haven’t yet, clear your schedule and get in on the action at sports betting sites like Betwhale. But first – read our UFC predictions and get those value bets in.

Best Sites for UFC Betting

These five sportsbooks consistently offer more betting markets and better UFC odds than the rest. Not only could you find better odds, but some even offer dedicated UFC contests.

Take a look at this one offered by BetOnline right now for UFC 304:

This is a $10,000 prop challenge that you can participate in for free at BetOnline. You will be given 12 prop questions and a tie-breaker question for the UFC 304 event. The top price is $500 for the winner – and the top 500 players will walk away with a prize.

You think you’ve got the knowledge to win it?

Summary of Our Top UFC Predictions for UFC 304

A quick breakdown of our top UFC fight predictions today, which are explained in more detail in the article, for this upcoming UFC 304 card.

Bet	Odds	Sportsbook
Tom Aspinall in Round 1	+120	Betwhale
Bobby Green wins inside the distance	+350	Betwhale
Gregory Rodrigues wins by submission	+550	Betwhale
Leon Edwards & Over 2.5 rounds	-185	Betwhale
Tom Aspinall in Round 1 or 2	-185	Betwhale
Bobby Green Moneyline	-115	Betwhale
Gregory Rodrigues Moneyline	+125	Bovada
Arnold Allen wins by decision	-110	BetOnline

How We Picked The Best UFC Bets

• Tom Aspinall in Round 1 – With a 100% finishing rate, Aspinall enters the octagon with the sole intention of finishing his opponents. Of his fourteen victories, thirteen have come in round one. Facing Curtis Blaydes, who has been stopped in all four losses by knockout, two of which have come in round one, it’s not hard to envision Aspinall getting the job done early. Given +120 odds, we feel like this is an exceptional value for a bet.

• Bobby Green wins inside the distance  – If you are backing Bobby Green and are looking to squeeze out some more value, we recommend picking Green to win inside the distance. Sporting a 62.5 % finish rate, Green isn’t as potent as a finisher as we would like. Yet, facing Paddy Pimblett, we feel that it’s plausible to see Green pull off a finish. Pimblett, although being stopped only once in twenty-four fights, has yet to face anyone as good as Green. Outgunned on the feet and having been rocked in several fights against lesser competition in the UFC, we feel Pimblett is ripe for the picking. With the odds at +325, this bet deserves a sprinkle.

• Gregory Rodrigues wins by submission – If you have Gregory Rodrigues winning this fight, we feel that this prop bet is worth a sprinkle. The reason we like this bet is that Rodrigues, despite being known for his knockout abilities, is an excellent grappler with submissions. Facing Christian Leroy Duncan, who is solely a striker and has an iffy takedown defense, there is a window of opportunity for Rodrigues to bring the fight to the mat. Given +550 odds, if this fight does hit the floor, we feel Rodrigues has an excellent chance of locking in the submission.

Best UFC Picks Today

Here are some of our UFC predictions today and the latest picks for UFC betting:

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2

• Pick: Edwards (-250)
• Best Bet: Edwards & Over 2.5 rounds (-185)

The welterweight title is on the line in the main event, as champion Leon Edwards makes his third title defense against the second-ranked Belal Muhammad.

Unbeaten in the last thirteen fights, a span that has lasted over eight years, Leon Edwards is quietly building a resume worthy of being considered one of the greatest welterweights of all time.

A well-rounded fighter, Edwards can be a nightmare to face. Technical on the feet, Edwards is precise and elusive. With wrestling skills in his back pocket, Edwards has landed at least one takedown in nine of his last twelve fights.

Meanwhile, unbeaten in the last ten fights and having run through the gauntlet that is the welterweight division, Belal Muhammad gets a long-awaited opportunity at UFC gold and the opportunity to exact revenge over Edwards.

A high-IQ fighter, who puts forth excellent game plans, Muhammad has proven to be a difficult fighter to face. Wasting little time in neutralizing an opponent, whether it’s with his wrestling or striking, Muhammad will exploit his foe’s weaknesses. Having lost only one fight in the past fifteen fights, Muhammad is a flat-out winner.

In what should be an entertaining main event, we are backing Edwards.

On paper, Muhammad appears to be the better fighter. Holding edges in strikes per minute and takedowns per fifteen minutes, the workhorse that is Muhammad, seemingly has a multitude of ways to score the victory.

However, Edwards, due to his style, never holds advantages on paper. Cerebral and efficient, Edwards has a way of slowing down a fight and outworking his opponent.

The better striker in this matchup, despite landing nearly two less significant strikes per minute, Edwards would be best served to keep the fight on the feet. Way more precise, Edwards holds a ten percent edge in striking accuracy. Notably hard to hit, Edwards is absorbing 2.34 significant strikes per minute – which is 1.3 less than Muhhamad.

Where this fight could get interesting, is within the wrestling of Muhammad. Landing nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes and twelve takedowns in the last four fights, Muhammad has a knack for getting the fight to the ground.

Edwards, who has wrestling chops of his own, has shown vulnerabilities within his defensive wrestling. Taken down eleven times in the last three fights, there is certainly a level of concern that Edwards can keep this fight upright.

Having said that, being taken down is not a death sentence for the champion. Going 8-2 when taken down, Edwards never accepts being grounded. Working his way back to the feet, and adjusting in the fight to withstand the next takedown attempt, Edwards is one of the best fighters at adapting within a fight.

Though the first fight between the two ended early due to an eye-poke, it was clear then and it will be in this fight, Edwards’ stark advantage on the feet will be the difference.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2

• Pick: Aspinall (-380)
• Best Bet: Aspinall in Round 1 or 2 (-185)

The co-main event comes in the heavyweight division, as interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall defends his title against the fourth-ranked Curtis Blaydes in a rematch.

A winner of two straight and ten of the last eleven fights, Tom Aspinall will look to avenge his only defeat in the UFC. Facing Aspinall is Curtis Blaydes, who is coming off a knockout victory over Jailton Almeida and has won four of his last five fights.

In what should be an action-packed fight, we are siding with Aspinall.

Putting forth an impressive resume during his tenure with the UFC, going 13-4 with one no-contest in eighteen octagon appearances, Blaydes is long overdue for this opportunity to fight for UFC gold.

The UFC’s all-time leader in the heavyweight division in takedowns landed, control time, and top position time, Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers to grace the octagon. Despite being criticized for his fight style, Blaydes hasn’t let that stop him from racking up thirteen UFC victories. With proven knockout power, Blaydes can put anyone to sleep.

While Blaydes is an excellent fighter and rightfully among the top five in the division, the force that is Aspinall is truly one of the best heavyweights to ever grace the octagon.

A pure finisher, Aspinall has proven to be dangerous wherever the fight takes place. Active, accurate, and with legitimate power in his hands, Aspinall can put anyone away. Where Aspinall thrives, however, is grappling. Potent in top control, Aspinall features some of the heavyweight division’s best ground-and-pound and submissions.

Holding vast advantages in this fight, Aspinall is landing 4.19 more significant strikes per minute than Blaydes and has a 16% striking accuracy edge. Though Blaydes lands more takedowns per fifteen minutes than Aspinall, with a 100% takedown accuracy and takedown defense, Aspinall has shown zero weaknesses within his grappling and wrestling.

The same can’t be said about Blaydes, who was taken down nine times against Jailton Almeida, pushing his takedown defense to 31%.

Expecting this fight to be fireworks for however long it lasts, we believe that Aspinall’s well-rounded abilities will be too much for Blaydes to overcome.

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

• Pick: Green (-115)
• Best Bet: Green Moneyline (-115)

We have an exciting fight in the lightweight division, as fifteenth-ranked Bobby Green takes on Paddy Pimblett.

A winner of three of the last four fights, including a flawless victory over Jim Miller at UFC 300, Bobby Green has proven that at 37 years old, he is far from done. Facing Green is Paddy Pimblett, who has won seven consecutive fights, five of which have come in the UFC.

In what has the ingredients to be an exhilarating fight, we have Green winning.

Undefeated in the UFC, with a controversial victory over Jared Gordon tucked in there, Pimblett has a lot to prove in this fight. A grappler, Pimblett has fancied striking in the UFC. While showing off good power and output, Pimblett has toed the line on the feet, as he’s been rocked several times.

Facing Green, arguably his stiffest test, we see Pimblett’s willingness to strike is a detriment in this matchup.

A technical striker who is precise and throws high output, Green looks to methodically break down fighters. With a wrestling background, Green will mix in timely takedowns. Known to have an excellent gas tank, Green pushes forth a heavy pace.

Being the experienced and better overall striker, Green is slightly more active, landing 1.32 more significant strikes than Pimblett. Green is also more defensively sound, albeit fighting with his hands down, as he is absorbing only 38% of his opponent’s significant strikes. That’s a 21% difference over Pimblett, who is being struck on 59% of his opponent’s significant strikes.

While Pimblett is a solid grappler, he is landing less than a takedown per fifteen minutes and has a paltry 25% takedown accuracy. Showing no effort to bring the fight to the mat, it’s hard to see Pimblett gain top control at any point. If anything, it’s Green who might be on top, as Pimblett’s 56% takedown defense leaves an opening for the veteran to land a takedown.

Knowing this fight will be mainly contested on the feet, we believe that Green is in the driver’s seat. Either outworking or winning by knockout, Green is the better striker and overall fighter in what should be an exciting fight.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

• Pick: Rodrigues (+125)
• Best Bet: Rodrigues Moneyline (+125)

We have a fun matchup in the middleweight division, as Christian Leroy Duncan takes on Gregory Rodrigues.

Bouncing back after his first professional defeat, with two second-round stoppage victories, Christian Leroy Duncan will look to continue his ascension up the middleweight division. Facing Duncan is Gregory Rodrigues, who has won two straight and four of the last five.

In what should be a battle, we are siding with Rodrigues.

A former champion in Cage Warriors, Duncan has shown in four UFC appearances, that he is a promising talent in the middleweight division. An exceptional striker, Duncan brings forth flash and power. Winning all three UFC victories inside the distance, Duncan has proven that he isn’t looking for the scorecards to decide his fate.

The same could be said about Rodrigues, who has an 86.6% finishing rate.

Massive for the weight class, Rodrigues brings forth a well-rounded skillset. Known to push a heavy pace, the Brazilian looks to overwhelm opponents with pressure. Boasting excellent output, accuracy, and power, Rodrigues is a dangerous man to stand across from. With immense strength and excellent grappling, Rodrigues is a threat if the fight hits the mat.

Where Rodrigues has struggled, is within his striking defense. Susceptible to being hit, Rodrigues exposes himself to being tagged – which has led to three of his five losses coming by knockout.

An area where Duncan can certainly capitalize on if this fight stays standing.

However, after Rodrigues’ last two performances, where he utilized his grappling and got the fight to the ground, we see the Brazilian having an avenue to victory.

Duncan, in the lone two takedown attempts on him in the UFC, by a striker in Armen Petrosyan we add, was taken down once. Controlled for over two minutes, Duncan was unable to return to the feet for some time. Taking into account that Rodrigues is a much better grappler than Petroysan, as well as stronger, we find it likely that if Duncan is on his back in this fight, he will have to survive the round to get back to his feet.

With that said, give up the complete martial artist, Rodrigues, to score the upset over Duncan.

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

• Pick: Allen (-235)
• Best Bet: Allen wins by decision (-110)

We have a showdown in the featherweight division, as the sixth-ranked Arnold Allen takes on tenth-ranked Giga Chikadze.

On a two-fight losing streak, after starting 10-0 in the UFC, Arnold Allen is in need of a victory to stay in title contention at 145 pounds. Facing Allen is Giga Chikadze, who has won ten of the last eleven fights and recently bounced back from his first UFC loss, defeating Alex Caceres.

In what is an important fight in the featherweight division, we are picking Allen to prevail.

A former kickboxer, with an impressive 38-6 record, Chikadze has transitioned into mixed martial arts with flying colors. Dynamic on the feet, and excellent at keeping range, Chikadze batters opponents with leg kicks and strikes from the outside. Evasive, Chikadze is notably difficult to track down.

What has long been a focus in Chikadze’s skills, is his takedown defense. Coming from the kickboxing background, it’s to be expected that the Georgian would have issues keeping the fight upright.

While Allen is a striker, who is patient and powerful, he has some solid wrestling and grappling in his back pocket. Although rarely showing that side of his skills these days, in Allen’s first three UFC fights, he landed eight takedowns.

Although it’s hard to say if we will see Allen approach the wrestling route, given the Brit is on a two-fight losing streak and is tumbling out of the title picture, we have a feeling that he will do what is necessary to pull out the victory.

Having said that, even though Chikadze is slightly the more active striker, it’s not like Allen can’t win on the feet as well. With a power edge, Allen has the ability to land the more damaging blows and potentially, a fight-ending shot.

Expecting this to be a highly competitive fight, we believe Allen’s well-rounded skills will be the difference in this pivotal featherweight affair.

Top Sites for UFC Picks

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
🤑 Reduced juice	Bovada
🎁 Best market variety	BetOnline
⚽️ Best for live betting	Sportsbetting.ag
📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS
💰 Best bonuses	EveryGame
🔝 Best for new users	BUSR
🃏 Most competitive odds	Wild.io
🥎 Best design	XBet
🏈 Best for prop bets	Freshbet

We’ve found that these betting sites constantly deliver the most competitive odds on UFC fights, along with generous bonuses for new bettors. Below, we’ve prepared a guide on how to create an account.

Other UFC Picks for Tonight (Over/Under + Method of Victory)

Looking for ways to gain an edge before you bet on the fights? Then look no further.

Over/Under Bets on UFC

Among mixed martial arts fans, it’s common knowledge that the unpredictable is typical.

However, some trends and styles lean towards a certain bet. In this instance, we are discussing over/under. When trying to decide on an over/under, several aspects go into finding the right side to be on. Observing this card, there are plenty of examples that we have shared for our latest UFC predictions.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2

Tom Aspinall has a record of 14-3. All 14 wins have come inside the distance (11 knockouts, 3 submissions). In seventeen fights, Aspinall has been stopped twice.

Curtis Blaydes has a record of 18-4 with one no-contest. Of those 18 wins, 13 have come inside the distance (13 knockouts). In twenty-three fights, Blaydes has been stopped four times.

The over/under is set at 1 ½ (-155 Under)

Aspinall has gone under 1 ½ rounds in eleven consecutive fights and fifteen of his seventeen professional fights. Blaydes has hit the under 1 ½ mark in four straight fights.

Sporting a 100% finishing rate, and having never gone the distance in seventeen fights, Aspinall has never let a judge decide his fate. Equally dangerous on the feet and the ground, Aspinall can halt the action from wherever the fight goes.

Not as proficient of a finisher as Aspinall, Blaydes sports a respectable 72.2% finishing rate. Known for his wrestling, Blaydes does most of his handiwork taking his opponents down and battering them with ground-and-pound. Yet, no slouch on the feet, Blaydes has also put many foes to sleep.

While the first fight between the two ended prematurely due to an injury, we expected then and now, that when these two collide, the fight isn’t going to last long. At heavyweight and given how dangerous these two men are, it’s hard to see this fight going over 1 ½ rounds.

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen has a record of 19-3. Of those 19 wins, 11 have come inside the distance (7 knockouts, 4 submissions). In twenty-two fights, Allen has never been stopped.

Giga Chikadze has a record of 15-3. Of those 18 wins, 10 have come inside the distance (9 knockouts, 1 submission). In eighteen fights, Chikadze has been stopped once.

The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-260 Over)

Allen has gone over 2 ½ rounds in two consecutive fights and eleven of the last thirteen. Chikadze has hit the under 2 ½ mark in two straight fights and six of the last nine.

While both men have over 57% finishing rates, those numbers are inflated from their time on the regional scene. In the UFC, Allen has a 40% finishing rate, and Chikadze has a 37.5% finishing rate.

Add in that Allen has never been finished and Chikadze was once, by submission, and we find it difficult to see this fight not going over 2 ½ rounds.

Method of Victory

When trying to figure out the outcome of the fight, it’s important to look through a fighter’s record. There you can gauge whether a fighter is proficient in knockouts, submissions, or both. Lastly, look at what a fighter has done of late to find a trend.

Looking at this card, there are several fighters who are more likely to win by a certain outcome. Check out our method of victory UFC predictions:

Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad has a record of 23-3 with one no-contest. Of those 23 wins, 17 have come by decision.

A well-rounded fighter, who adapts his fighting style to whatever opponent is in front of him, Muhammad seizes the opportunity to take advantage of a foe’s weakness. With only one defeat in the past fifteen fights, Muhammad is a proven winner and a high-IQ fighter.

Facing welterweight champion Leon Edwards, who has never been finished before, it’s hard to see Muhammad being the first to do so.

With seventeen decision victories, eleven coming in the last thirteen fights, if Muhammad were to win this fight, we believe it’s likely to come on the scorecards.

The odds for Muhammad to win by decision is (+325).

Christian Leroy Duncan

Christian Leroy Duncan has a record of 10-1 with one no-contest. Of those 10 wins, 8 have come by knockout.

A striker, who is flashy and powerful, Duncan does his best work on the feet. Scoring knockouts in the last five victories, an eight overall, Duncan has been largely successful at turning off his opponent’s lights.

Facing Gregory Rodrigues, a well-rounded fighter, we believe if this fight stays contested on the feet, Duncan has a legitimate chance to add to his knockout total. Rodrigues, albeit a good striker, has been knocked out in three of his five defeats. Known to have a suspect chin, and engage in brawls, Rodrigues’ recipe to defeat lies within his striking defense and fight IQ.

The odds for Duncan to win by knockout is (+140).

Benefits of UFC Bets

1. Plenty of time to study fights

   Unlike some of the major sports, which are daily, the UFC holds events weekly or bi-weekly. This gives ample time to break down fights and make educated bets.

2. Fight Cards are filled with opportunities

   There are at least ten or more fights on a usual fight card. While not every fight is going to tickle your fancy, there are plenty of other fights to get action on.

3. Excellent props

   The options are endless when it comes to UFC props. Whether you’re looking to bet on the exact outcome of a fight or what round the fight ends in, UFC betting sites have given way to the consumer finding precisely what they want action on.

4. Easy for beginners

   With readily available information and videos of fights accessible to watch, betting on the UFC for beginners is as easy as betting on boxing or the NFL. Sportsbooks are even starting to provide information on trends, which helps a lot, especially for beginners.

Where to Bet On UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Finding the right UFC betting site that caters to your every need can be tough. Our top 5 picks are as follows:

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
🤑 Reduced juice	Bovada
🎁 Best market variety	BetOnline
⚽️ Best for live betting	Sportsbetting.ag
📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS

Our top pick is Betwhale, as it offers users some of the most exciting betting odds out there – and don’t forget about the generous bonuses available for all of its users! Make your way to Betwhale’s website to find everything you need to know about its latest bonuses and promos.

UFC Predictions – FAQs

How Can I Watch UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2?

In order to watch the UFC 304 pay-per-view, you must have an ESPN+ subscription. If subscribed, you can purchase the PPV.

The early preliminary card starts at 6:00 PM Eastern on ESPN+. The preliminary card you can catch on ESPN or ESPN+ starting at 8:00 PM Eastern. The main card starts at 10:00 PM Eastern on PPV.

How Can I Watch UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2?

The main event of UFC 304 features a pivotal title fight in the welterweight division, as champion Leon Edwards squares off against Belal Muhammad in a rematch.

How Can I Watch UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2?

Betwhale has the best odds for your UFC picks. According to Betwhale, Belal Muhammad is a +210 underdog. If you placed $100 on Muhammad, your total payout will be $310.

Leon Edwards comes in as a -250 favorite, which means you have to place $250 on Edwards to win $100.

Expert Tips & Tricks for Picking the Right UFC Bets

1. Sign Up for Multiple Sportsbooks

   There are several reasons why signing up for multiple sportsbooks makes sense. For one, you can compare odds. This is called line shopping.

   The benefit of line shopping is to cash in on the odds with the higher payout.

   Another reason why signing up for multiple betting sites is a good idea is you get to enjoy several sports bonuses at the same time. Whether it’s deposit bonuses or free bets, sportsbooks have enticing offers that give the consumer little reason not to get in on the action.

   Plus, you’ll find additional bonuses and markets for other betting categories like horse racing and football – which is great if you tend to place bets on other sports as well.

2. Don’t Be Afraid to Hedge

   In every sport, upsets occur. In mixed martial arts, the unpredictable often shines brightest.

   If you place a parlay that is one fight away from cashing in, even if the odds are tremendously in your favor, don’t be afraid to hedge.

   In a sport where a fight can end on a dime, whether a stoppage occurs or an injury halts the bout, it’s better to be safer. After all, profit is profit until it isn’t.

3. Keep an Eye on Live Betting Odds

   When the fight is underway, and you have action on a particular fighter, it’s smart to watch the live betting odds. Especially if the fighter you picked dominates and looks to be closing in on cashing your bet.

   The reason to look is that in that scenario, the opposition’s odds will be astronomically inflated. To miss an opportunity to sprinkle some on the opponent and assure profit could be costly.

   For example, when round five started between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards in their second fight, Usman was a -5000 favorite, according to BetOnline. Edwards was a +1200 underdog to win and +4000 to win via knockout in round five. Given that the odds continue to change during the fight, Edwards could be an even bigger underdog.

   Anyways, Edwards went on to stun Usman with a head-kick knockout with less than a minute left in the fight – leaving backers of Usman stunned and with losing bets.

If you regularly find yourself betting on other sports as well, check out our March Madness betting guide.

Did You Like Our Latest UFC Picks & Predictions?

That’s it for today’s UFC fight predictions.

Whether your money is on Edwards or Muhammad, make sure you are taking the best price possible – which will usually be available either at Betwhale or Bovada.

Thanks for reading and remember to bet responsibly!

 

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