UFC Picks for Today – Predictions, Tips & Odds for the Latest UFC Fight Cards

With new fights happening every week, it’s pretty tough to keep up with the favorites, underdogs – and, most importantly, the value bets.

But with our expert UFC picks, you can always stay ahead of the curve. So, what’s up for this week?

If you haven’t yet, clear your schedule and get in on the action at sports betting sites like Betwhale. But first – read our UFC predictions and get those value bets in.

Best Sites for UFC Betting

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• Bonuses, Bonuses, Bonuses: Exclusively for UFC bettors who sign up and make a deposit, Betwhale offers a $1,250 welcome bonus! Other bookies we’ve mentioned also offer generous promos.
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Summary of Our Top UFC Predictions for UFC 306

A quick breakdown of our top UFC fight predictions today, which are explained in more detail in the article, for this upcoming UFC 306.

Bet	Odds	Sportsbook
Valentina Shevchenko wins by submission	+1000	Betwhale
Diego Lopes wins by decision	+210	Betwhale
Luis Rodriguez wins by submission	+350	Betwhale
Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline	+110	Betwhale
Valentina Shevchenko +5.5 Points	-170	Betwhale
Diego Lopes Moneyline	-177	Betwhale
Daniel Zellhuber wins by decision	+130	Bovada
Ronaldo Rodriguez wins inside the distance	+170	Bovada
Valentina Shevchenko wins by submission	+1000	BetOnline

How We Picked The Best UFC Bets

• Valentina Shevchenko wins by submission– With a finishing rate north of 65%, Shevchenko is a credible finisher. While that finishing rate has taken a hit, with four decision wins in the last eight victories, Shevchenko has not won by decision twice in a row since 2015. Facing Alexa Grasso, who has only been stopped once by submission, we find a stoppage tough to come by. Yet, with Shevchenko expected to bring the fight to the mat, there is a chance a submission could come to fruition. At +1000, the odds are worth it to give this bet a sprinkle.
• Diego Lopes wins by decision  – If you are backing Diego Lopes and are looking to squeeze out some more value, we recommend picking Lopes to win by decision. Sporting an 88% finish rate, and with seven of the last eight wins coming inside the distance, Lopes fights to stop his foe. Facing Brian Ortega, who despite being a punching bag at times, is very durable, a finish likely isn’t in the cards. Stopped only twice in twenty fights, one due to injury and the other coming after four rounds of action, Ortega has proven he can withstand punishment. Given this is a three-round fight, we believe this fight is destined for the scorecards.
• Ronaldo Rodriguez wins by submission – If you have Ronaldo Rodriguez winning this fight, we believe that this prop bet is worth your attention. The reason we like this bet is that Rodriguez has won two of the last three fights by submission and 31% of his victories have come by submission. Facing Ode Osbourne, who has been stopped in all six losses, four coming by submission, there is a strong chance this bet could hit. At +350 odds, this bet deserves to be looked at further.

Best UFC Picks Today

Here are some of our UFC predictions today and the latest picks for UFC betting:

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

• Pick: Dvalishvili (+110)
• Best Bet: Dvalishvili Moneyline (+110)

The bantamweight title is on the line in the main event, as champion Sean O’Malley makes his second title defense against the number one ranked Merab Dvalishvili.

Coming off a successful title defense, Sean O’Malley proved he is the cream of the crop at bantamweight. Defeating Marlon Vera, who accounts for O’Malley’s lone defeat, the champion exacted revenge and pushed his unbeaten streak to seven consecutive fights.

Meanwhile, on a tear, Merab Dvalishvili has won ten consecutive fights. Defeating four consecutive former champions, Dvalishvili has more than proven, he is worthy of the opportunity to fight for UFC gold.

In what should be an entertaining main event, we are backing Dvalishvili.

Starting 0-2 in the UFC, Dvalishvili appeared like an afterthought in the bantamweight division. Potentially a loss away from being ousted from the promotion, Dvalishvili completely turned around his career, winning ten straight fights.

One of the best chain wrestlers to grace the octagon, Dvalishvili truly lives up to his nickname “the machine”. In twelve UFC fights, Dvalishvili has landed an astonishing 79 takedowns – which is the third most in UFC history.

An energizer bunny, Dvalishvili has cardio for days. Pushing a hard pace, Dvalishvili does an excellent job wearing opponents down, racking up control time, and landing ground-and-pound.

Against O’Malley, it will be pertinent that Dvalishvili drags the fight to the ground.

A striker, O’Malley is one the most active fighters to grace the octagon. Landing an absurd 7.63 significant strikes at a 61% accuracy, both of which rank first all-time in the bantamweight division, O’Malley can be a handful to keep pace with. In fact, except for the no-contest, O’Malley has outlanded opponents in ten of his eleven UFC fights.

If O’Malley can keep the fight on the feet, the fight swings in the champion’s favor.

However, we don’t see that happening. O’Malley comes into this fight with a 62% takedown defense. Rarely tested, but taken down six times by former champion Petr Yan, who averages 1.73 takedowns per fifteen minutes, it’s clear that O’Malley is vulnerable to being taken down.

Averaging 6.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes, we expect Dvalishvili to look to get the fight to the ground early and often. Having seen Dvalishvili neutralize and dominate former champions Jose Aldo and Petr Yan, there is something special about the Georgian’s ability to maintain and sustain a heavy workload throughout the fight.

With that said, we favor Dvalishvili’s wrestling and cardio over O’Malley’s stark striking advantage.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3

• Pick: Shevchenko (+117)
• Best Bet: Shevchenko +5.5 Points (-170)

The co-main event comes in the women’s flyweight division, as champion Alexa Grasso looks to close the chapter on one the greatest female mixed martial artists of all time, former champion Valentina Shevchenko.

Unbeaten in the last six fights, Alexa Grasso has gone from a fringe contender at strawweight to the flyweight champion and the number one ranked pound-for-pound woman in the UFC. Facing Grasso is Valentina Shevchenko, who if not for a judge’s egregious scorecard in the fifth round of the rematch against Grasso, would be the current flyweight champion.

In what should be an action-packed trilogy, we are siding with Shevchenko.

After going 3-3 in the UFC at strawweight, Grasso decided to move up to the flyweight division. In what proved to be an excellent choice, Grasso has captured and defended the flyweight title, while going unbeaten in six fights at flyweight.

A pure striker, Grasso brings forth excellent activity, speed, and cardio. Though she is a capable grappler, with only five takedowns and two submissions in twelve UFC fights, Grasso prefers to keep it on the feet. Landing 4.67 significant strikes per minute and having twice eclipsed 145 significant strikes in a fight, Grasso, if given the chance to stay upright, is hard to keep pace with.

Having said that, in two fights against Shevchenko, Grasso has only out-landed the former champion in two of the nine rounds.

As well-rounded as it gets, Shevchenko is truly a complete fighter. Cerebral on the feet and notably difficult to hit, Shevchenko is calculated and precise when she decides to strike. Boasting immense physical strength and cardio, Shevchenko isn’t someone who gets bullied or fades in a fight. Add in solid wrestling and grappling skills, and it’s hard to find a hole in Shevchenko’s game.

While we anticipate this fight to be close and Grasso certainly has what it takes to spring off another win over Shevchenko, we believe that the former champion’s ability to mix in striking and timely takedowns is the key to winning this fight.

Combining the stats from both fights between the two, Shevchenko has landed 167 significant strikes to Grasso’s 143 significant strikes. Shevchenko has also landed eight takedowns and 14:01 of control time to Grasso’s one takedown and 4:01 of control time.

Although every fight is different, and Grasso’s speed certainly has flustered Shevchenko on the feet, it’s the wrestling and strength of Shevchenko that has proven to be a factor in neutralizing the champion. Until Grasso can prove she can stay upright or get back to the feet quickly against Shevchenko, we believe that the former champion has the best avenue to victory.

With that said, we have the flyweight queen, Shevchenko, getting her crown back in what should be an epic trilogy fight.

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

• Pick: Lopes (-177)
• Best Bet: Lopes Moneyline (-177)

We have an exciting fight in the featherweight division, as the third-ranked Brian Ortega takes on thirteenth-ranked Diego Lopes.

Coming off a massive victory over Yair Rodriguez, Brian Ortega ended a thirty-nine-month drought without a win and put himself back into the title picture. Facing Ortega is Diego Lopes, who has won four consecutive fights, three of which ended in round one.

In what should be an exciting fight, we are siding with Lopes.

A two-time title contender, Ortega has been atop the featherweight division for the last six years. While Ortega has yet to win UFC gold, ranked third, he is closing in on a title shot once again.

Known to be a grappling wizard, Ortega is one of the most dangerous submission artists to grace the octagon. Comfortable off his back, Ortega welcomes opponents into his guard. With eight submission victories, in sixteen wins, it’s best to avoid grappling with Ortega at all costs.

However, Ortega doesn’t always use his grappling abilities. Fancying striking, Ortega will stand and trade with any opponent. Absorbing 6.54 significant strikes a minute, striking has very much been the crux of Ortega’s defeats.

While there is no doubt Ortega is a significant jump up in competition, holding several advantages on paper, Lopes is just too scrappy to ignore. Showing off solid grappling and an array of submissions, Lopes is excellent on the ground. No slouch on the feet, Lopes strikes with bad intentions – winning two of the last three fights by first-round knockout.

The concern for the Brazilian will come against an opponent with stout takedown defense, solid wrestling, and a high work rate on the feet. Ortega doesn’t fit the mold, as his takedown defense is 57%, he’s landing only 1.17 takedowns per fifteen minutes and is averaging 4.07 significant strikes per minute. In addition, Ortega has been out-struck in seven of the last eight fights.

With that said, give us the chaos that is Lopes to pull off the biggest win of his career.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

• Pick: Zellhuber (-225)
• Best Bet: Zellhuber wins by decision (+130)

We have an intriguing matchup in the lightweight division, as Daniel Zellhuber takes on Esteban Ribovics.

A winner of three consecutive fights, and earning bonuses in the last two fights, Daniel Zellhuber is blossoming into a prospect to watch. Facing Zellhuber is Esteban Ribovics, who after an unsuccessful UFC debut, has won two straight fights.

In what should be a hard-fought battle, we are siding with Zellhuber.

Coming off back-to-back wins, with the most recent victory being a knockout over Terrance McKinney in thirty-seven seconds, Ribovics showcased his uncanny ability to finish fights.

A fast starter, and pure finisher, Ribovics enters the octagon with the sole intention of stopping his opponent. Having won twelve of thirteen victories inside the distance, with four wins coming with less than 40 seconds, Ribovics has largely been successful in doing just that.

However, Ribovics is facing a durable and massive lightweight in Zellhuber. Standing 6 ‘1 and with a 77-inch reach, Zellhuber has a three-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage over Ribovics.

A striker, Zellhuber does a good job keeping distance and picking apart opponents from the outside. With a takedown defense accuracy of 94%, Zellhuber can reliably keep a fight standing.

While Ribovics certainly has a chance, given his finishing prowess, this appears to be a difficult matchup. Known to crash the pocket, Ribovics due to the stark size difference, will need to continually put himself in jeopardy to get off his offense.

In our opinion, that’s easier said than done.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne

• Pick: Rodriguez (-140)
• Best Bet: Rodriguez wins inside the distance (+170)

We have a showdown in the flyweight division, as Ronaldo Rodriguez squares off against Ode Osbourne.

Coming off a successful octagon debut, Ronaldo Rodriguez extended his win streak to six. Facing Rodriguez is Ode Osbourne, who has lost two consecutive fights and desperately needs a victory to avoid falling further out of the picture at 125 pounds.

In what is an intriguing fight, we are picking Rodriguez to prevail.

Once a bright prospect, and ranked in the top fifteen of the flyweight division, Osbourne has been less than impressive of late. Dropping two straight fights and three of the last four, Osbourne is spiraling downhill.

An explosive striker, who is big for his weight class, Osbourne can stop anyone who stands across from him. With some decent wrestling and submission skills, Osbourne isn’t a one-dimensional fighter.

The problem Osbourne has faced inside the octagon is that defensively, he has too many holes. Absorbing 4.44 significant strikes per minute and being hit on 56% of the significant strikes opponents throw, Osbourne is vulnerable to being tagged on the feet.

However, even worse, Osbourne has issues on the ground. With a 64% takedown defense, and having been taken down in three consecutive fights, Osbourne has had issues staying upright. Problematic, as four of Osbourne’s six losses have come by submission.

Facing Rodriguez, we don’t see Osbourne getting away with his defensive deficiencies.

Rodriguez has the striking, wrestling, and grappling to cause Osbourne issues. Though at a size advantage, Rodriguez’s pressure and activity will be factors in getting inside and bringing the fight to the mat. From there, Rodriguez will lock in a submission.

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We’ve found that these betting sites constantly deliver the most competitive odds on UFC fights, along with generous bonuses for new bettors. Below, we’ve prepared a guide on how to create an account.

Other UFC Picks for Tonight (Over/Under + Method of Victory)

Looking for ways to gain an edge before you bet on the fights? Then look no further.

Over/Under Bets on UFC

Among mixed martial arts fans, it’s common knowledge that the unpredictable is typical.

However, some trends and styles lean towards a certain bet. In this instance, we are discussing over/under. When trying to decide on an over/under, several aspects go into finding the right side to be on. Observing this card, there are plenty of examples that we have shared for our latest UFC predictions.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Zellhuber has a record of 15-1. Of those 15 wins, 10 have come inside the distance (7 knockouts, 3 submissions). In sixteen fights, Zellhuber has never been stopped.

Esteban Ribovics has a record of 13-1. Of those 13 wins, 12 have come inside the distance (7 knockouts, 5 submissions). In fourteen fights, Ribovics has never been stopped.

The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-220 Over)

Zellhuber has gone over 2 ½ rounds in four of the last five fights. Ribovics has hit the over 2 ½ mark in two of the last three fights.

While both men carry over 66.6% finishing rates, they also happen to have solid chins and a knack for going to the scorecards of late. The reason being is when competition stiffens, the ability to stop opponents becomes harder to do.

However, both carry power and as we know in mixed martial arts, it only takes one punch to change the complexion of a fight. We just don’t foresee this being that fight, even as frantic and chaotic as it could get.

With that said, stick with the trends and the chins of both gentlemen to go over 2 ½ rounds.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne

Ronaldo Rodriguez has a record of 16-2. Of those 16 wins, 13 have come inside the distance (7 knockouts, 5 submissions, 1 disqualification). In eighteen fights, Rodriguez has never been stopped.

Ode Osbourne has a record of 12-7 with one no-contest. Of those 12 wins, 9 have come inside the distance (5 knockouts, 4 submissions). In nineteen fights, Osbourne has been stopped six times.

The over/under is set at 2 ½ (-135 Under)

Rodriguez has gone under 2 ½ rounds in three consecutive fights. Osbourne has hit the under 2 ½ mark in two straight fights and twelve of the last fourteen fights.

Although Rodriguez has never been finished, it’s his finishing prowess that aids the under. Winning 81.25% of his fights inside the distance, and with three consecutive stoppage victories, Rodriguez isn’t one to look for the judges to decide his fate.

The same could be said about Osbourne, but in a different light. Fighting to finish or be finished, Osbourne has only gone a full fifteen minutes in two of the last fourteen fights. In that stretch, eleven fights have ended in round one.

Given Rodriguez’s knack for halting the action and Osbourne’s quick fights, at -135, we love the under in this fight.

Method of Victory

When trying to figure out the outcome of the fight, it’s important to look through a fighter’s record. There you can gauge whether a fighter is proficient in knockouts, submissions, or both. Lastly, look at what a fighter has done of late to find a trend.

Looking at this card, several fighters are more likely to win by a certain outcome. Check out our method of victory UFC predictions:

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili has a record of 17-4. Of those 17 wins, 13 have come by decision.

A wrestler, who will chain together takedowns, Dvalishvili does everything in his power to takedown and control his opponent. Averaging 6.43 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and having landed 16 takedowns in the last two fights combined, Dvalishvili is nearly impossible to fend off.

Facing Sean O’Malley, who has only been stopped once in twenty fights, we find it hard to see Dvalishvili score a finish. We do see Dvalishvili though, being successful in taking down the champ and controlling him for the majority of the twenty-five minute fight.

The odds for Dvalishvili to win by decision is (+165).

Valentina Shevchenko

Valentina Shevchenko has a record of 23-4-1. Of those 23 wins, 8 have come by decision.

A well-rounded fighter, Shevchenko has proven that she can win both on the feet and the ground. With a finishing rate of 65.2% and stoppage wins in four of the last eight victories, Shevchenko is certainly capable of halting her opponent.

However, facing Alexa Grasso for a third time, we aren’t certain that Shevchenko can score a finish. After all, Grasso has only been stopped once in twenty fights.

The odds for Shevchenko to win by decision is (+195).

Benefits of UFC Bets

1. Plenty of time to study fights

   Unlike some of the major sports, which are daily, the UFC holds events weekly or bi-weekly. This gives ample time to break down fights and make educated bets.

2. Fight Cards are filled with opportunities

   There are at least ten or more fights on a usual fight card. While not every fight is going to tickle your fancy, there are plenty of other fights to get action on.

3. Excellent props

   The options are endless when it comes to UFC props. Whether you’re looking to bet on the exact outcome of a fight or what round the fight ends in, UFC betting sites have given way to the consumer finding precisely what they want action on.

4. Easy for beginners

   With readily available information and videos of fights accessible to watch, betting on the UFC for beginners is as easy as betting on boxing or the NFL. Sportsbooks are even starting to provide information on trends, which helps a lot, especially for beginners.

Where to Bet On UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Finding the right UFC betting site that caters to your every need can be tough. Our top 5 picks are as follows:

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
🤑 Reduced juice	Bovada
🎁 Best market variety	BetOnline
⚽️ Best for live betting	Sportsbetting.ag
📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS

Our top pick is Betwhale, as it offers users some of the most exciting betting odds out there – and don’t forget about the generous bonuses available for all of its users! Make your way to Betwhale’s website to find everything you need to know about its latest bonuses and promos.

UFC Predictions – FAQs

How Can I Watch UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili?

In order to watch the UFC 306 pay-per-view, you must have an ESPN+ subscription. If subscribed, you can purchase the PPV.

The early preliminary card starts at 7:30 PM Eastern on ESPN+. The preliminary card you can catch on ESPN or ESPN+ starting at 8:00 PM Eastern. The main card starts at 10:00 PM Eastern on PPV.

Who’s Fighting on UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili?

The main event of UFC 306 features a pivotal title fight in the bantamweight division, as champion Sean O’Malley squares off against Merab Dvalishvili.

Where Can I Find the Best Odds for UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili?

Betwhale has the best odds for your UFC picks. According to Betwhale, Merab Dvalishvili is a +110 underdog. If you placed $100 on Dvalishvili, your total payout will be $210.

Sean O’Malley comes in as a -130 favorite, which means you have to place $130 on O’Malley to win $100.

Expert Tips & Tricks for Picking the Right UFC Bets

1. Sign Up for Multiple Sportsbooks

   There are several reasons why signing up for multiple sportsbooks makes sense. For one, you can compare odds. This is called line shopping.

   The benefit of line shopping is to cash in on the odds with the higher payout.

   Another reason why signing up for multiple betting sites is a good idea is you get to enjoy several sports bonuses at the same time. Whether it’s deposit bonuses or free bets, sportsbooks have enticing offers that give the consumer little reason not to get in on the action.

   Plus, you’ll find additional bonuses and markets for other betting categories like horse racing and football – which is great if you tend to place bets on other sports as well.

2. Don’t Be Afraid to Hedge

   In every sport, upsets occur. In mixed martial arts, the unpredictable often shines brightest.

   If you place a parlay that is one fight away from cashing in, even if the odds are tremendously in your favor, don’t be afraid to hedge.

   In a sport where a fight can end on a dime, whether a stoppage occurs or an injury halts the bout, it’s better to be safer. After all, profit is profit until it isn’t.

3. Keep an Eye on Live Betting Odds

   When the fight is underway, and you have action on a particular fighter, it’s smart to watch the live betting odds. Especially if the fighter you picked dominates and looks to be closing in on cashing your bet.

   The reason to look is that in that scenario, the opposition’s odds will be astronomically inflated. To miss an opportunity to sprinkle some on the opponent and assure profit could be costly.

   For example, when round five started between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards in their second fight, Usman was a -5000 favorite, according to BetOnline. Edwards was a +1200 underdog to win and +4000 to win via knockout in round five. Given that the odds continue to change during the fight, Edwards could be an even bigger underdog.

Anyways, Edwards went on to stun Usman with a head-kick knockout with less than a minute left in the fight – leaving backers of Usman stunned and with losing bets.

Did You Like Our Latest UFC Picks & Predictions?

That’s it for today’s UFC fight predictions.

Whether your money is on O’Malley or Dvalishvili, make sure you are taking the best price possible – which will usually be available either at Betwhale or Bovada.

Thanks for reading and remember to bet responsibly!

 

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