UFC Picks for Today – Predictions, Tips & Odds for the Latest UFC Fight Cards

With new fights happening every week, it’s pretty tough to keep up with the favorites, underdogs – and, most importantly, the value bets.

But with our expert UFC picks, you can always stay ahead of the curve. So, what’s up for this week?

If you haven’t yet, clear your schedule and get in on the action at sports betting sites like Betwhale. But first – read our UFC predictions and get those value bets in.

Best Sites for UFC Betting

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Summary of Our Top UFC Predictions for UFC Fight Night

A quick breakdown of our top UFC fight predictions today, which are explained in more detail in the article, for this upcoming UFC Fight Night card.

Bet	Odds	Sportsbook
Karine Silva wins by TKO/KO	+400	Betwhale
Bogdan Guskov wins in round 1	+325	Betwhale
David Onama wins by submission	+850	Betwhale
Alex Perez moneyline	+148	Betwhale
Ryan Spann wins inside the distance	+187	Betwhale
Karine Silva wins inside the distance	+400	Betwhale
Tim Means/Uros Medic Under 1.5 rounds	+110	Betwhale
Jhonata Diniz wins in round one	-110	Bovada
David Onama moneyline	+140	BetOnline

How We Picked The Best UFC Bets

• Karine Silva wins by TKO/KO  – If you are backing Karine Silva in this fight, as a part of our UFC predictions, we recommend picking the Brazilian to win inside the distance. Sporting a 100% finishing rate, Silva has stopped seventeen opponents thus far in her career. Although six of Silva’s last seven wins have come by submission, she has eight knockout victories on her resume. Add in that Lipski has lost four of her eight losses by knockout and at +400, we see value.
• Bogdan Guskov wins in Round 1 – If you are backing Bogdan Guskov in this fight, this unique bet covers the first two rounds of action. Given that Guskov has won fourteen of his fifteen victories within the first two rounds, the odds are in our favor. Especially when you consider that opponent Ryan Spann has been stopped six times within the first two rounds.
• David Onama wins by submission – Although we believe that David Onama has a better chance of scoring a knockout, you can’t ignore this submission prop. Onama, who has won all eleven victories inside the distance, has won four times by submission. Opponent Jonathan Pearce has lost five times, three of which have come by submission. At +850, this play has legs

Best UFC Picks Today

Here are some of our UFC predictions today and the latest picks for UFC betting:

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez

• Pick: Perez (+148)
• Best Bet: Perez moneyline (+148)

The main event comes in the flyweight division, as the fifth-ranked Matheus Nicolau takes on the eighth-ranked Alex Perez.

Coming off a loss to Brandon Royval, which snapped a six-fight win streak, Matheus Nicolau will look to get back on track. Though the setback cost Nicolau a chance to fight for UFC gold, the Brazilian has an excellent opportunity to redeem himself and prove that he should be next in line for a title shot.

A well-rounded fighter, Nicolau has a multitude of ways to win. Featuring power, accuracy and excellent striking defense, Nicolau can be a handful to deal with on the feet. Having stout takedown defense and good wrestling abilities, Nicolau has the skills to become a champion.

Meanwhile, on a three-fight losing streak, Alex Perez will look to capture his first victory in nearly four years. Still ranked within the top ten of the division, Perez can halt the losing streak and get back in the title picture with a victory in the main event.

A well-rounded fighter, Perez has proven to be equally dangerous on the feet and the ground. With five stoppages in the past seven wins, three coming by submission, Perez is always a threat to halt the action.

In what should be an entertaining main event, we are backing Perez.

Although Nicolau is certainly the more consistent fighter, winning seven of his nine octagon appearances, there are aspects in this matchup that we believe favor Perez.

On the feet, Nicolau is the more accurate and overall polished striker. Defensively, Nicolau can be tough to hit, eluding 66% of the opponent’s significant strikes.

While the case could be made that Nicolau has the striking advantage, we see his low output as a detriment in a five-round fight.

Perez, who is equally defensively sound and has a better chin, is the more active striker. Slightly edging out Nicolau in significant strikes landed per minute, Perez can leave a better impression on the judges by out-striking the Brazilian.

When it comes to grappling, Nicolau is smothering and has some submission ability. Tough to take down, Nicolau has an uncanny ability to keep the feet standing.

Perez has solid takedown defense as well, as showcased against Muhammad Mokaev, stuffing seventeen of twenty takedown attempts. With excellent wrestling, Perez is landing a healthy 2.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

Expecting this fight to be closely contested, we favor Perez’s takedown defense to keep the fight standing and activity on the feet to sway the rounds in his favor.

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

• Pick: Spann (-196)
• Best Bet: Spann wins inside the distance (+187)

The co-main event comes in the light heavyweight division, as the eleventh-ranked Ryan Spann takes on Bogdan Guskov.

On a two-fight skid, Ryan Spann will look to win for the first time in seventeen months. Facing Spann is Bogdan Guskov, who is coming off an impressive stoppage victory over Zac Pauga.

In a fight that can end on a dime, we are siding with Spann.

A powerful striker, Guskov looks to end the fight early. With twelve of fifteen wins coming in round one, Guskov has often done just that.

However, Guskov expends a lot of energy into finding the finish. Having gone past round one only four times in eighteen fights, Guskov can’t be counted if the fight goes into deep waters.

A finisher himself, Spann has won eighteen of twenty-one victories by stoppage. Of those eighteen stoppage wins, fifteen have come in round one.

While Spann has durability concerns, being stopped in six of nine losses, he has gone the distance six times. Yet, that’s not why we like Spann in this matchup.

With twelve submission victories, Spann is potent if the fight is on the ground. Landing 1.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Spann has the ability to get the fight to the mat. Significant, as Guskov has iffy takedown defense and is weak off his back.

Expecting this fight to be chaotic and potentially end within the first minute, we are siding with the huge grappling edge of Spann to be the difference.

Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

• Pick: Silva (-150)
• Best Bet: Silva wins inside the distance (+120)

We have a showdown in the women’s flyweight division, as the twelfth-ranked Ariane Lipski takes on the thirteenth-ranked Karine Silva.

On a three-fight win streak, Ariane Lipski is in the midst of her best run in the UFC since debuting back in 2019. Looking to cool down Lipski is Karine Silva, who has won eight consecutive fights, three of which have come in the UFC.

In what is an important fight in the women’s flyweight division, we believe that Silva will ultimately prevail.

No stranger to being an underdog, Lipski has won the last three fights as a +340, +205 and +163 dog. While impressive and yet again doubted, of those three fights, none of the opponents were coming off a win.

Silva, who has won eight straight fights, is peeking. Even more impressive, Silva has yet to win by decision, winning all seventeen of her victories inside the distance.

As for this fight, it comes down to whether Lipski can keep the fight upright or not. Dubbed the “Queen of Violence”, Lipski is primarily a striker. Known for her Muay Thai background, Lipski features an arsenal of strikes.

Showing improvements as a grappler and within her takedown defense, Lipski has stuffed twenty-seven consecutive takedown attempts.

However, Silva is the best grappler that Lipski will have faced since last being taken down. Landing 2.45 takedowns per fifteen minutes, at a 60% accuracy, Silva has landed a takedown in all three UFC fights. Dangerous on the ground, Silva has won six of the last seven fights by submission.

While Lipski has been defying the odds of late, Silva’s grappling acumen and willingness to pull guard or put herself in a disadvantageous position is a tough matchup for the talented striker.

Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz

• Pick: Diniz (-285)
• Best Bet: Diniz wins in Round 1 (-135)

We have a fun matchup in the heavyweight division, as Austen Lane takes on promotional newcomer Jhonata Diniz.

Falling short against Justin Tafa, Austen Lane hopes the third time is the charm, as he seeks UFC win number one in his third octagon appearance. Also seeking their first UFC win is debutant Jhonata Diniz, who in less than two years as a professional mixed martial artist, is a perfect 6-0.

In a fight destined to end inside the distance, we are siding with Diniz to win his octagon debut.

A former defensive end in the NFL, Lane has successfully transitioned to mixed martial arts since taking up the sport in 2015.  Athletic and heavy-handed, Lane makes it known from the opening bell that he’s looking to knock you out. With eleven of his twelve wins coming via knockout, more often than not, Lane has done just that.

However, Lane isn’t the most durable of fighters. Knocked out in all four losses in round one, Lane can be very much all or nothing when he steps foot inside the octagon.

Diniz, on the other hand, is more durable and experienced. A kickboxer before transitioning to mixed martial arts, Diniz has competed in twenty-nine kickboxing matches.

Technical and with an arsenal on the feet, Diniz is a dangerous striker. Winning all six mixed martial bouts by knockout in round one, Diniz has been dominant.

While anything can happen at heavyweight, Lane’s susceptibility to getting hurt on the feet and Diniz’s credentialed striking background seem tailormade for Diniz to start his UFC tenure with a win.

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama

• Pick: Onama (+150)
• Best Bet: Onama moneyline (+150)

We have a showdown in the featherweight division, as Jonathan Pearce takes on David Onama.

Coming off a loss to Joanderson Brito, which halted a five-fight win streak, Jonathan Pearce will look to bounce back. Facing Pearce is David Onama, who bounced back from a defeat to Nate Landwehr, defeating Gabriel Santos by second-round knockout.

In what could be an early contender for the ‘Fight of the Night’, we are picking Onama to prevail.

An insanely active fighter, Pearce is known for his boxing and wrestling. Landing 5.6 significant strikes per minute, at a 56% accuracy, Pearce has eclipsed 90 significant strikes in two of the last three fights. Scoring 5.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes, with twenty-four total in the last five games, Pearce can take over a fight with wrestling. Backed by excellent cardio, Pearce isn’t one to slow down.

While Pearce has excellent qualities and quite frankly is a tough matchup for Onama, whose takedown defense accuracy is at 45%, there is a stark difference in the striking that we feel will come into play in this fight.

Primarily a striker, Onama features excellent output and legitimate power. Underrated as a grappler, Onama can surprise with a takedown or two in a fight. With excellent cardio and an iron chin, Onama is truly never out of a fight.

Expecting Pearce to test Onama’s wrestling, we are aware that there could be time spent on the ground. Not one to stay grounded though when taken down, Onama does a solid job getting back to the feet. With good scrambles and strength, don’t be shocked to see Onama go from a disadvantageous position advantageous one.

If Onama can keep the fight standing for long periods, his striking is more polished and he has a significant power advantage. Pearce has shown to be durable, but in the UFC, this is the first time he will have faced a true knockout artist.

Having said that, with damage being the number one criteria for judging, we feel that Onama can supersede any takedowns given up with more impactful strikes on the feet.

Tim Means vs. Uros Medic

• Pick: Means (+250)
• Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-185)

We have an exciting fight to open the card in the welterweight division, as Time Means takes on Uros Medic.

Coming off a technical knockout victory over Andre Fialho, which snapped a three-fight losing streak, Tim Means will look to win two consecutive fights for the first time since 2021. Facing Means is Uros Medic, who has won two of the last three fights.

In what should be a scrap, we are siding with Means.

Although Medic is the younger and more powerful striker, we feel that the -310 odds are too steep for a fighter who has poor takedown defense.

Means may be long in the tooth at 40 years old, but he is as gritty as it comes. Technical on the feet, Means utilizes his length to keep opponents at a distance. Unafraid to close the distance though, Means will fire off devastating elbows. With sneaky wrestling and good cardio, Means can be a tough out for most.

The key to this fight is the first round, as Medic has won six of his nine victories in the opening round. Often swarming opponents, Medic has the ability to hurt and halt anyone early on in the fight. While still dangerous throughout the fight, as Medic’s cardio wanes, so do his chances of stopping his opponent.

Means isn’t by any means indestructible, but with only two knockout losses in fifty professional fights, the veteran is rather durable. The issue for Means has always been grapplers, which Medic is not.

While the two will certainly engage on the feet, we do believe at some point Means will look to exploit Medic’s horrid takedown defense. Landing a takedown in eight of the last eleven fights and seven takedowns in the last four fights, it’s clear that Means isn’t afraid to branch away from his patented striking to mix things up.

Against a fearsome and powerful striker like Medic, wrestling and grinding down the younger foe will be pertinent to Means scoring the win. At +250 odds, you can’t go wrong with siding with the one they call the “Dirty Bird”.

Top Sites for UFC Picks

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
🤑 Reduced juice	Bovada
🎁 Best market variety	BetOnline
⚽️ Best for live betting	Sportsbetting.ag
📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS
💰 Best bonuses	EveryGame
🔝 Best for new users	BUSR
🃏 Most competitive odds	Wild.io
🥎 Best design	XBet
🏈 Best for prop bets	Freshbet

We’ve found that these betting sites constantly deliver the most competitive odds on UFC fights, along with generous bonuses for new bettors. Below, we’ve prepared a guide on how to create an account.

Other UFC Picks for Tonight (Over/Under + Method of Victory)

Looking for ways to gain an edge before you bet on the fights? Then look no further.

Over/Under Bets on UFC

Among mixed martial arts fans, it’s common knowledge that the unpredictable is typical.

However, some trends and styles lean towards a certain bet. In this instance, we are discussing over/under. When trying to decide on an over/under, several aspects go into finding the right side to be on. Observing this card, there are plenty of examples that we have shared for our latest UFC predictions.

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Ryan Spann has a record of 21-9. Of those 21 wins, 18 have come by inside the distance (6 knockouts, 12 submissions). In thirty fights, Spann has been stopped six times.

Bogdan Guskov has a record of 15-3. All 15 wins have come inside the distance (13 knockouts, 2 submissions). In eighteen fights, Guskov has been stopped twice.

The over/under is set at 1 ½ (-286 Under)

Spann has gone under 1 ½ rounds in six of the last seven fights. Guskov has hit the under 1 ½ mark in seven consecutive fights and sixteen of his eighteen professional fights.

A striker, with good power, Spann can turn anyone’s light out. With good grappling and excellent submissions, if the fight ever hits the mat, Spann is as dangerous as it gets in the light heavyweight division.

Meanwhile, Guskov is a powerful striker whose sole intention when stepping foot inside the octagon is to knock his opponent out. With a 100% finishing rate and thirteen of fifteen wins coming by knockout, Guskov has often followed through.

Expecting this fight to get chaotic early, we don’t see a world in how this fight goes very long. Spann has seen twenty-two of his thirty fights end inside the first round, while Guskov has had fourteen of his eighteen fights end in round one. When these two clash, don’t blink!

Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz

Austen Lane has a record of 12-4 with one no contest. All 12 wins have come inside the distance (11 knockouts, 1 submission). In seventeen fights, Lane has been stopped four times.

Jhonata Diniz has a record of 6-0. All 6 wins have come inside the distance (6 knockouts).

The over/under is set at 1 ½ (-270 Under)

Lane has gone under 1 ½ rounds in sixteen of his seventeen fights. Diniz has hit the under 2 ½ mark in all six of his fights.

Having only seen a round two twice, with only one of the times going over the 1 ½ rounds, Lane is very much a one-round fighter. The same could be said about Diniz, who in all six fights, has stopped his opponent in round one.

While the odds aren’t exactly favorable, this play is something to add to a parlay.

Method of Victory

When trying to figure out the outcome of the fight, it’s important to look through a fighter’s record. There you can gauge whether a fighter is proficient in knockouts, submissions, or both. Lastly, look at what a fighter has done of late to find a trend.

Looking at this card, there are several fighters who are more likely to win by a certain outcome. Check out our method of victory UFC predictions:

Uros Medic

Uros Medic has a record of 9-2. Of those 9 wins, 7 have come via knockout.

A striker, who lands with excellent output, Medic looks to swarm opponents out of the gate. With power and vicious leg kicks, Medic has recorded seven knockouts – five coming in the opening round.

Facing Tim Means, who is 40 years old and has been knocked down in three of the last ten fights, Medic has a real chance to put out the veteran’s lights.

The odds for Medic to win by knockout is (-105).

David Onama

David Onama has a record of 11-2. Of those 11 wins, 7 have come by knockout.

Although Onama has recorded four submission victories, he is very much a dangerous striker. In his last five wins, four have come by knockout.

Facing Jonathan Pearce, who has only lost once by knockout among his five defeats, there is a definite concern that Onama may not find a finish.

However, the one knockout loss came to Joe Lauzon, who wasn’t known for his knockout power. Add in that Onama is the best striker Pearce has faced inside the octagon, certainly in terms of power and it’s not out of the realm to see a stoppage victory via strikes for Onama.

The odds for Onama to win by knockout is (+300).

Benefits of UFC Bets

1. Plenty of time to study fights

   Unlike some of the major sports, which are daily, the UFC holds events weekly or bi-weekly. This gives ample time to break down fights and make educated bets.

2. Fight Cards are filled with opportunities

   There are at least ten or more fights on a usual fight card. While not every fight is going to tickle your fancy, there are plenty of other fights to get action on.

3. Excellent props

   The options are endless when it comes to UFC props. Whether you’re looking to bet on the exact outcome of a fight or what round the fight ends in, UFC betting sites have given way to the consumer finding precisely what they want action on.

4. Easy for beginners

   With readily available information and videos of fights accessible to watch, betting on the UFC for beginners is as easy as betting on boxing or the NFL. Sportsbooks are even starting to provide information on trends, which helps a lot, especially for beginners.

Where to Bet On UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

Finding the right UFC betting site that caters to your every need can be tough. Our top 5 picks are as follows:

🥇 Best overall	Betwhale
🤑 Reduced juice	Bovada
🎁 Best market variety	BetOnline
⚽️ Best for live betting	Sportsbetting.ag
📱 Best mobile interface	BetUS

Our top pick is Betwhale, as it offers users some of the most exciting betting odds out there – and don’t forget about the generous bonuses available for all of its users! Make your way to Betwhale’s website to find everything you need to know about its latest bonuses and promos.

UFC Predictions – FAQs

How Can I Watch UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez?

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez will be available to watch in its entirety on ESPN+ – which is ESPN’s streaming service.

The preliminary card starts at 4:00 PM Eastern, while the main card starts at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Who’s Fighting on UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez?

The main event of UFC Fight Night features an important fight in the flyweight division, as the fifth-ranked Matheus Nicolau takes on the eighth-ranked Alex Perez in a rematch.

Where Can I Find the Best Odds for UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez?

Betwhale has the best odds for your UFC picks. According to Betwhale, Alex Perez is a +148 underdog. If you placed $100 on Perez, your total payout will be $248.

Matheus Nicolau comes in as a -179 favorite, which means you have to place $179 on Nicolau to win $100.

Expert Tips & Tricks for Picking the Right UFC Bets

1. Sign Up for Multiple Sportsbooks

   There are several reasons why signing up for multiple sportsbooks makes sense. For one, you can compare odds. This is called line shopping.

   The benefit of line shopping is to cash in on the odds with the higher payout.

   Another reason why signing up for multiple betting sites is a good idea is you get to enjoy several sports bonuses at the same time. Whether it’s deposit bonuses or free bets, sportsbooks have enticing offers that give the consumer little reason not to get in on the action.

   Plus, you’ll find additional bonuses and markets for other betting categories like horse racing and football – which is great if you tend to place bets on other sports as well.

2. Don’t Be Afraid to Hedge

   In every sport, upsets occur. In mixed martial arts, the unpredictable often shines brightest.

   If you place a parlay that is one fight away from cashing in, even if the odds are tremendously in your favor, don’t be afraid to hedge.

   In a sport where a fight can end on a dime, whether a stoppage occurs or an injury halts the bout, it’s better to be safer. After all, profit is profit until it isn’t.

3. Keep an Eye on Live Betting Odds

   When the fight is underway, and you have action on a particular fighter, it’s smart to watch the live betting odds. Especially if the fighter you picked dominates and looks to be closing in on cashing your bet.

   The reason to look is that in that scenario, the opposition’s odds will be astronomically inflated. To miss an opportunity to sprinkle some on the opponent and assure profit could be costly.

   For example, when round five started between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards in their second fight, Usman was a -5000 favorite, according to BetOnline. Edwards was a +1200 underdog to win and +4000 to win via knockout in round five. Given that the odds continue to change during the fight, Edwards could be an even bigger underdog.

   Anyways, Edwards went on to stun Usman with a head-kick knockout with less than a minute left in the fight – leaving backers of Usman stunned and with losing bets.

   If you regularly find yourself betting on other sports as well, check out our March Madness betting guide.

Did You Like Our Latest UFC Picks & Predictions?

That’s it for today’s UFC fight predictions.

Whether your money is on Nicolau or Perez, make sure you are taking the best price possible – which will usually be available either at Betwhale or Bovada.

Thanks for reading and remember to bet responsibly!

 

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