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Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight Odds: Betting Guide for the Fight of the Year (August 5th, 2023)

jake paul nate diaz

Coming off a whirlwind fight against Tommy Fury that would give him his first professional loss, Jake Paul looks to continue his undefeated streak against former UFC fighters when he takes on Nate Diaz in the biggest fight of the year.

The entire world of fighting has been asking for this fight since Paul and Diaz began feuding over social media.

Now that the fight is on, we’ve found the best early odds for the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz match – and they are available at BetMGM.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds

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>> Bet on this fight here

After the fight was announced, Paul immediately became the favorite, opening up at -270 odds to +250 for Diaz. All the early money has been on Paul so far, as his line is currently shifting even further, with Diaz’s line rising as a heavy underdog.

There are a lot of storylines behind this match. Paul is coming off his first defeat in the ring, whereas Diaz will be fighting for the first time since departing the UFC as one of its most popular and most brazen fighters ever.

This could be a ten-round slug-fest, so don’t expect the same kind of technical prowess we saw from Terence Crawford last week — but don’t be surprised if this fight ends just as spectacularly as Crawford’s did. 

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight Details

  • Date & Time: Saturday, August 5th, 2023
  • Location: American Airlines Arena, Dallas
  • Broadcast: DAZN pay-per-view
  • Bout: 10 rounds
  • Latest Betting Odds: Click here

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fighter Profiles

Jake “The Problem Child” Paul:

  • Age: 26
  • Record: 6-1
  • KOs: 15 (56%)
  • Height: 6’1
  • Reach: 76”
  • Stance: Orthodox (R)
  • Last Fight: February 26, 2023
  • Odds: -400

Nate “Diablo” Diaz 

  • Age: 37
  • Record: 0-0
  • KOs: 0
  • Height: 6’0
  • Reach: 76”
  • Stance: Southpaw (L)
  • Last Fight: September 10, 2022 (UFC)
  • Odds: +300

While Diaz showed his boxing prowess throughout his UFC career, this will be his first straight-up boxing match. Paul, on the other hand, comes into this match with seven professional fights, going 6-1.

In terms of size, the advantage is on Paul’s side despite Diaz having an equal 76-inch reach. Paul has an inch of height over Diaz, plus he’s heavier and stronger.

Still, Diaz has proven to be a hard guy to knock out over his illustrious career, something Paul will have a tough time doing as well. As the underdog, Diaz will have to depend on his stamina and grit to overcome Paul’s size.

While we look further into the boxing odds for Paul vs Diaz in a bit, let’s look at where to place your bets on the biggest fight of 2023.

How To Bet On The Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight

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We’ve found the best odds for this fight at BetMGM, so we highly recommend you place your bets there.

Step 1: Create an account

  • Click here to open BetMGM
  • Click the Register button
  • Register with your PayPal, Yahoo Sports, or Email account
  • Enter all the necessary information, including the last 4 digits of your SSN

Step 2: Verify your account

  • Verify your account by uploading documents such as your Driver’s License and Utility Bill
  • Wait for BetMGM to verify you and ensure you’re of legal age to bet

Step 3: Place your Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz bet

  • Open the Deposit section once logged in and verified
  • Select a payment option
  • Follow the instructions to deposit
  • Place your Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz bet!

Check out an in-depth BetMGM review.

Understanding The Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Boxing Odds

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz 1

How To Read Boxing Moneyline Odds

Boxing moneylines are simple: it’s whoever wins the bout straight up. In this case, you’d have to bet $400 to win back $100 if you bet on Paul’s odds (-400). That’s quite a chunk of change.

In the case of Diaz (+300), $100 would win you back $300 if the former UFC star is the winner.

>> Click here to bet on Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz

How Boxing Over/Under Betting Works

Over/under in boxing is simple as well. The number of rounds is given by the bookmakers and you choose whether the match will go more than that number or less.

For the Paul/Diaz fight, there are only ten rounds, and the over/under has been set at eight. 

Understanding Boxing Prop Bets

As it edges closer to the match, many books like BetMGM will have prop bets under their boxing odds, some as many as a hundred. What you need to worry about are the three main prop bets that bettors wager on:

  • Method of Victory: All books provide a method-of-victory option as a prop bet for big fights. This bet is about how the fighter will win (TKO, KO, or Decision).For this fight, the method of victory props are as follows:
    • Jake Paul by KO/TKO: -140
    • Jake Paul by Decision: +350
    • Nate Diaz by KO/TKO: +550
    • Nate Diaz by Decision: +650
  • Round Betting: This centers around how many rounds it will take for the winner to win. For the Paul/Diaz fight, make sure to keep in mind that it is only a ten-round bout.The round props here all heavily favor Paul, with the biggest value coming in the early rounds. For example, a first-round Paul KO is currently set at +2500, while a finish in rounds six or seven are only listed at +900.

    You can get much longer odds on Diaz, ranging from +8000 (for a tenth-round stoppage) to +4000 (for a KO in the third, fourth, or fifth). The oddsmakers clearly feel that, if Diaz is going to win, he’s going to have to finish Paul early.

  • Distance Wagering: Will the fight go the distance? Yes or no? That’s how simple distance wagering is. If you think either of these fighters is going to get knocked out before the final bell, you don’t want to bet on it going the distance.

What To Know Before Betting On The Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Bout?

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

Paul Looking To Rebound From His First Loss

Interestingly, Paul’s first professional defeat came at the hands of a current professional boxer in Fury. He methodically plucked away at the less experienced Paul and won on two of the three judges’ cards despite suffering a knockdown by Paul in the eighth round.

In the grand scheme of things, Paul is still a relatively new fighter to boxing, with only seven bouts under his belt. The 6-1 record shows he has a future but losing a strategic bout to Fury didn’t help him earn any props among boxing pundits.

Paul has a few factors in his favor for his bout against Diaz – one of them being his 6-0 record versus guys without a professional boxing pedigree. The list includes former UFC fighters such as  Anderson Silva, Tyrone Woodley, and Ben Asken, all of which had boxing prowess.

For Paul, boxing is the focus, and he’s determined to prove to the world that he’s not just a flash in the pan after losing to Fury. When facing MMA fighters thus far, Paul’s training strictly as a boxer has proven to be too much for those that have tried fighting outside of their comfort zone.

Paul will now face the same situation against a guy in Diaz, who has shown boxing chops but remains an MMA fighter, which could prove problematic against Paul’s boxing skills.

At -400, there aren’t a lot of holes to poke in Paul being the clear favorite here. He has power and size over Diaz, but he will want to avoid going the distance here as Diaz could capitalize late if he senses Paul is fatigued should the former make it that far.

>> Bet on Jake Paul to win

Diaz Hopes To Open Up His Post-UFC Career With A Victory

Diaz is pumped up for this fight, so much so that he knocked another fighter that looks just like Paul unconscious during an April fight outside of a bar in New Orleans. Despite winning the street fight by a chokehold, Diaz will only be allowed to use his fists versus Paul.

Known as one of the most popular UFC fighters of the last decade, Diaz accumulated a 22-13 record in mixed martial arts. He went out on a high note, defeating his final opponent, Tony Ferguson, by submission in the fourth round.

Now comes Paul, a cruiserweight opponent that is bigger than the usual lightweight opponents he was fighting in the UFC. Diaz, however, can take a punch like very few others, and Paul will find it frustrating how he simply can’t KO the guy.

For this bout, Diaz will have to train harder than ever to catch up on the boxing skills that he’ll need to stand a chance against Paul. He better be working on his power punches, as he hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2013.

Diaz, however, is a crafty veteran fighter that knows exactly what to do against Paul. As he would with any of his MMA opponents, Diaz likes to play the long game and is gifted with a sturdy chin that keeps him in the fight the whole way.

As his opponent tires toward the end of the bout, Diaz smells blood and pounces. He’ll try the same approach with Paul, a heavier guy that may not be able to handle Diaz’s stamina at the end.

A victory over Paul would give Diaz a fantastic springboard into another big pay-per-view fight, as this one is expected to earn a ton of money.

>> Bet on Nate Diaz to win

Scuffle at the Press Conference

The fireworks (predictably) started early in this one, as Paul and Diaz started mouthing off at each other during the press conference — leading to a massive brawl.

The donnybrook started after Diaz exchanged words with Paul’s manager, causing both of their entourages to go at it. Neither fighter engaged, however, so both should be 100% for Saturday’s fight.

Of course, neither fighter could be accused of taking the high road, as Diaz lobbed several homophobic slurs at Paul and Paul promised to engage in lewd acts “like a cowboy” with Diaz.

As wordplay goes, it wasn’t quite Shakespeare, but it made for a good show nonetheless. It’s almost like these two guys know how to promote a fight…

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Predictions and Picks

The one guarantee for this fight is that it’s going to be a lot of fun. Paul and Diaz have been trash-talking one another for a year now, and the hostility between both sides already boiled over once before backstage of a previous Paul fight.

Now the two loudmouths get to see what the other is made of, with Paul getting all the early money.

Here’s our problem with Paul being such an overwhelming favorite. He just fought in February, which will give him about five months between fights by the time he suits up against Diaz on August 5th.

Diaz is a cardio machine. He’s going to dance circles around Paul, given he’ll have had almost a year between fights. Diaz thrives on his stamina, so Paul could be in for the fight of his short career should this bout get into the seventh and eighth rounds.

For Paul, a KO is how he’ll want to win because going the distance is playing with fire against a guy like Diaz. Considering he’s coming off a loss, we think Paul is going to come out and rush things, falling into the hands of Diaz.

It will be in the seventh and eighth rounds that Diaz starts to come on strong and turn the fight his way. Until that point, he’ll be luring Paul around the ring to wear him out, where he’ll capitalize by landing a flurry of punches on Paul.

While Diaz may not knock the bigger man out, he’ll damage him enough for the judges to give him the decision should it go the distance.

As good as Paul has been against former UFC fighters, we think he loses to Diaz due to fatigue at the end.

We think Diaz wins the fight by decision.

>> Bet on Diaz to win by a decision here

Who Do Other Fighters Like in the Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Fight?

There have been plenty of other fighters who haven’t been shy about sharing their opinion on this fight. It’s interesting that the bulk of expert opinion, both from the boxing and MMA worlds, seems to heavily favor Jake Paul.

Legendary boxing promoter Eddie Hearn actually switched his pick, as he initially favored Diaz — until he saw him spar. Now, he predicts that Paul will “smoke” Diaz, further predicting that the fight won’t go past four rounds.

Current UFC welterweight Matt Brown also favors Paul in this one, saying the fight “isn’t even exciting.” He does give credit to Diaz for one thing in this fight, though: making a lot of money.

Former UFC champion Michael Bisping is one of the few pros who agrees with our assessment, as he feels that Diaz will outpoint Paul. Bisping credits Diaz’s stamina and toughness for his prediction, as he feels the Stockton native will weather the early storm before piling it on late.

Conor McGregor also favors Diaz, but he predicts a much different method of victory, claiming the former MMA fighter will “slap [Paul’s] head off.” Given that Diaz did much the same to McGregor, it’s no surprise that the Irishman doesn’t want to see his rival lose to a YouTube sensation.

As for Paul himself, he predicts a sixth-round knockout. Which experts will prove prophetic? We’ll have to wait for Saturday night to find out.

Why Should I Bet On the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight Online?

Two reasons: it’s faster and more convenient. Do you need more positives as to why wagering online is the way to go for your Paul vs Diaz boxing betting odds? Read below.

Mobile Compatibility – Online sportsbooks like BetMGM also cater to mobile devices far better than in-person casinos. While they also have apps, they’re not as engaging, user-friendly, or as streamlined as apps for online books. Their easy-to-use features and the platforms make navigation a smooth process. And it can all be done from your phone.

Great Selection – In-person casinos can often have limited selections on their events, especially the smaller games. This isn’t the case with many online sportsbooks, as they post an amazing array of games from boxing to eSports.

Comfort – Don’t you want to be as comfortable as possible when you watch the fight and follow your Paul vs Diaz bet? We thought so. With online betting, there is no reason to have to leave your house should you choose, as you can have it all right in front of you whether it’s on your laptop, desktop, or mobile device.

>> Create an account at BetMGM and bet on this fight

Guide to Betting on Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

Who Will Win The Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight?

Experts and sportsbooks believe there is no doubt that Paul will win the fight. However, we believe Diaz will methodically outrun Paul and exhaust him before beating him in the late rounds.

How Many Rounds Will The Paul vs Diaz Fight Go?

We don’t believe Paul will be able to land a lot of big punches in the early going and therefore think this goes the distance with Diaz taking advantage late.

What Is The Best Bet For The Nate Diaz vs Jake Paul Fight?

Due to his stamina and a long time off from his last fight, we like Diaz’s moneyline (+300) as we believe he’ll win straight up.

Are There Any Prop Bets For The Paul vs Diaz Bout?

Yes, there are several prop bets available for the Paul vs. Diaz bout. You can bet on the following:

  • Whether Paul will finish the fight early: -140
  • Whether Paul will win by decision: +350
  • Whether Diaz will finish the fight early: +550
  • Whether Diaz will win by decision: +650

You can also bet on whether the fight will go the distance, as well as which round it will end in (and which fighter finishes it).

Related betting guides:

Ready To Place Your Bets On The Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Fight?

You’ve got all the tools you’ll need to place your bets on the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz fight. Don’t forget to head to BetMGM and grab the welcome bonus for new bettors.

Looking at both fighters’ history, Diaz is understandably the underdog. He doesn’t have the boxing pedigree of Paul, but his endurance is one of the best in the game.

For our money, we like Diaz to upset Paul despite the latter’s power. Paul will try all night to nail Diaz with a power punch, but Diaz is going to take Paul for a ride and extend the bout as long as it can go so he can catch Paul tiring out. At that point, we believe he’ll deliver his attack and win.

Regardless, the biggest fight of 2023 will be an entertaining one and a huge money-maker so don’t miss out on it.

Whether you have the odds-on favorite Paul or the underdog Diaz, please gamble responsibly.

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